Air defense and missile defense: the right time for system reform

2026-05-12

Recently, Ukraine launched a series of drone attacks on the important oil export hubs of Primorsky Port and Ust Luga Port in the Baltic Sea of Russia, forcing the interruption of port operations and hindering energy exports. This incident once again highlights the importance and difficulty of modern air defense and anti missile operations. Currently, from the continuous attrition war in the Eastern European plain to the blockade confrontation in the Middle East, modern warfare practices are constantly challenging people's understanding of traditional air defense and anti missile systems. Emerging combat equipment such as drones, cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons have demonstrated extremely strong tactical lethality, and have also revealed the structural deficiencies of traditional air defense and anti missile systems in dealing with "low, slow, small," saturated attacks, and systematic mixed attacks due to excessive reliance on expensive interceptors and independent platforms. At the same time, a profound transformation driven by threats and technology is accelerating in the global air defense and missile defense field. Multiple countries are gradually abandoning their previous singular and isolated thinking, and shifting their development focus towards intelligence, stratification, and global integration. The outcome of the future battlefield will increasingly depend on the already unfolding changes. Traditional dilemma - threat escalation, highlighting the shortcomings of "air defense, ten defenses, nine defenses". ”This old saying has been given new meaning in recent local conflicts. Faced with various new threats such as' you sing and I come on stage ', traditional air defense and anti missile systems are becoming increasingly inadequate, facing multiple challenges in early warning, interception, and cost. Among them, the threat posed by "low, slow, and small" targets to air defense systems is becoming increasingly prominent: small unmanned aerial vehicles and patrol missiles have low flight altitudes, and their echo signals are easily overwhelmed by ground clutter; Slow flight speed, often misjudged as a bird by the system; Is the radar reflection area small, making it difficult to detect even without active stealth design? Thus becoming a "weapon" to penetrate the air defense network. Russia's "Geranium", "Lancet", and Iran's "Shahd-136" unmanned aerial vehicles have made remarkable achievements on the battlefield and gained great fame thanks to this advantage. The more severe challenge comes from saturation attacks. In modern conflicts, short-term, large-scale, and multi-directional firepower strikes have made it difficult for a single air defense system to effectively respond. In the "Al Aqsa Floods" operation, Hamas launched over 5000 rockets into Israel within 20 minutes. Even with the "Iron Dome" system's claimed high interception rate of 90%, missed rockets still caused significant losses. It has been proven that even the most advanced air defense system will experience a sharp decline in effectiveness in the face of unforeseen and large-scale saturation strikes. The imbalance of cost-effectiveness ratio puts defenders who rely on traditional air defense methods in another passive position. Faced with the cost advantage of cheap drones, the defense either has to "open the door wide" or have to "use gold bars to strike stones". Ukraine once used 390 drones to launch a long-distance attack and destroy Russia's polar patrol ship "Blizzard", which cost over 200 million US dollars. In the US Israel Iraq conflict, in order to intercept a large number of "small motorcycles", the US military consumed 800 "Patriot" missiles in the first five days, costing up to 2.4 billion US dollars, more than the total consumption of this type of missiles in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the past four years. This cost pressure can be fatal in the war of attrition. Moreover, the new generation of threats is evolving towards systematization and complexity. In this round of conflict, Iran has developed a "combination punch" strategy of multiple types of missiles and aircraft: the "Shahd-136" unmanned aerial vehicle conducts harassment in front, the "Meteor-3" ballistic missile forces the "THAAD" system to start intercepting, the "Fathe-2" hypersonic missile breaks through, and the "Qasim Basil" medium range missile follows suit. There are reports that Iran had announced hitting four THAAD radars deployed by the US military in the Middle East. Although it was not recognized by the US, the latter urgently transported THAAD systems from South Korea for assistance, indirectly reflecting the real impact on its air defense and anti missile system. Breakthrough path - to show the strengths of each institute and advance in a diversified way in order to make up for the inherent weakness of the traditional air defense and antimissile system, in recent years, the United States, Türkiye and other countries have accelerated the research, development and deployment of new systems based on their national conditions and military development needs. The United States has announced the development of the "Golden Dome" system, with plans to invest $185 billion over three years to integrate resources such as "Patriot," "THAAD," and "Aegis," and build a reconnaissance and detection network that includes new warning and detection satellites, warning aircraft, and sea based radar, as well as a multi-layered interception system from space to the deep sea. In short, "Jinqiong" aims to transition from a "point-to-point" detection and interception mode to a future "(anti missile) network to (missile, drone) group" monitoring and destruction. Türkiye's "steel dome" system shows its ambition to establish an independent air defense system. It is not a replica of Israel's' Iron Dome '. Compared to the "Iron Dome" which is only responsible for terminal defense, the "Steel Dome" integrates multiple layers of interception capabilities and functions as a combination of Israel's "Iron Dome", "David's Stone Rope", and "Arrow" air defense systems. The system is worth 460 million US dollars per set and consists of 47 mobile vehicles including missile launch vehicles, radar vehicles, command and control vehicles, and power vehicles. Israel is focusing on reducing the high interception costs of existing air and missile defense systems and promoting the development and deployment of the "Iron Beam" laser air defense system. The system adopts unique adaptive optics technology to dynamically adjust the laser beam to compensate for atmospheric disturbances, achieving long-range directional strikes of high-energy laser beams. According to data, the cost of each launch of the "Iron Bundle" is only a few dollars, making it highly cost-effective when dealing with cheap incoming targets. In the current US Israel Iran conflict, the "Iron Bundle" participated in terminal defense operations throughout the entire process, demonstrating certain combat advantages, but also exposing problems such as strong dependence on weather and insufficient multi-target response capabilities. In addition, France's "Sky Guardian" system deeply integrates artificial intelligence; Russia launches' canopy 'air defense system, focusing on responding to drone threats; South Korea's LAMD low altitude missile defense system and India's "Kusha" long-range air defense and anti missile system also provide their own solutions to address future diversified threats. These explorations together form a diverse picture of the transformation of the global air defense and missile defense system. Future direction - multidimensional integration, intelligent leadership. Looking at the exploration and practice of multiple countries, it is not difficult to find that the development direction of the future air defense and anti missile system is not the performance upgrade of a single equipment, but strives to achieve a profound transformation from equipment stacking to system integration, and from passive response to active control. The core of this transformation lies in internalizing artificial intelligence as the "decision-making brain" of the system. The design concept of "Jinqiong" indicates that the significance of artificial intelligence lies in reshaping the core cycle of "observation judgment decision action". In high dynamic and strong adversarial environments, artificial intelligence technology can greatly compress the time delay from perception to action, improve interception efficiency, and thus give rise to new tactical tactics. On the future battlefield, the attacking side may face a defense system with an exponentially increasing response speed. Accompanying this development is the multi domain integration of air defense and anti missile system architecture. In the past, air defense and anti missile systems often focused on specific airspace or threat types, and faced difficulties in dealing with multi-level and multi-directional mixed attacks, relying only on temporary blind spots. The new generation system pursues a seamless connection of "air space land sea" and a firepower connection of "far medium near" from the design source. Its goal is to integrate command nodes, sensor networks, and firepower units into an organic whole, achieving real-time sharing of cross domain intelligence and optimal coordination of firepower. This to some extent solves the stubborn problem of poor compatibility and high collaborative losses between systems, and endows the air defense and anti missile system with stronger endogenous resilience in complex confrontations. Improving the cost-effectiveness of air defense operations is the key to solving the dilemma of attrition warfare. This includes two parallel paths: one is to actively develop low-cost options such as directed energy weapons and cost-effective interceptors in interception methods, while using networked command and control systems to enhance the economy of the kill chain; Secondly, in terms of system form, an open architecture and modular design are adopted to maximize compatibility with existing equipment, reduce lifecycle costs, and create sustainable defense capabilities. It can be seen that the current evolution of air defense and anti missile technology is not a simple repair. Directed energy weapons are transforming interception methods, artificial intelligence is updating decision cores, modular architecture is reshaping system ecology, and multi-layer and multi domain defense is reconstructing the combat space. This synergy is driving the upgrade of air defense and anti missile systems from passive defense "expensive shields" to "intelligent networks" that balance cost and efficiency, evolving from "information islands" that operate independently to "system nodes" that are interconnected across the entire domain. (Looking into the New Era)

Edit:Rina    Responsible editor:Lily

Source:China Military Network

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