Recently, several well-known foreign institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth rate and stock index targets, expressing optimism about the Chinese economy and Chinese assets. Institutions believe that the positive economic growth expectations in China, improved profit prospects for enterprises, and relatively low asset valuations in China have enhanced the medium - to long-term attractiveness of the Chinese market and Chinese assets to global investors. Morgan Stanley recently announced an increase in the target level of the Chinese stock index. The institution stated that the reasons for its optimism about the Chinese stock market in the early stages, such as the bottoming out of the return on equity, the upward shift in valuation range, policy support for the private sector, and the accelerated emergence of technological innovation achievements, still hold true. At the same time, the partial easing of external shocks and the gradual stabilization of corporate profits have provided further upward space for the profitability and valuation levels of the Chinese stock market. The low allocation positions of global investors and the strengthening of the renminbi may help the stock market continue to rise. Goldman Sachs recently released a research report stating that due to the strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, Goldman Sachs maintains its position of increasing holdings in Chinese stocks. The institution stated that in the past, when the RMB exchange rate appreciated, the Chinese stock market often performed well. In theory, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate may benefit the Chinese stock market through fundamental, risk premium, and investment portfolio flow channels. The continuous expansion of China's capital market opening up has also created favorable conditions for foreign institutions to pay attention to and invest in Chinese assets. Li Ming, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), recently stated at the 2025 Global Investor Conference hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that the CSRC will strengthen the top-level institutional design for opening up to the outside world in accordance with the deployment requirements of institutional openness, and focus on promoting the compatibility and connectivity of rules, regulations, management, and standards, so that the system can better play a fundamental and long-term role in promoting two-way openness. Several interviewed experts from foreign investment institutions stated that the dividends of China's capital market opening policy continue to be released, which will further optimize the facilitation level of cross-border trade investment and financing. At the same time, the "combination punch" to stabilize the stock market has also given foreign investment institutions a "reassurance pill" to be bullish on Chinese assets. The improvement of China's economic growth expectations has become a common reason for many foreign institutions to recommend over allocation of A-shares. Xiong Yi, Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank China, stated that the research team of Deutsche Bank has raised the forecast for China's GDP growth rate in 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.7%. Xiong Yi analyzed that at the policy level, monetary easing and proactive fiscal spending are expected to continue. In the short term, there is still enough room for fiscal policy to support the economy by issuing special treasury bond and local government special bonds, and structural monetary policy tools will also support credit growth. For monetary policy, the research team of Deutsche Bank expects to provide more liquidity support through reserve requirement ratio cuts and loan facilitation. Morgan Stanley recently raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate for the next two years from the previous 4.2% and 4.0% to 4.5% and 4.2%, respectively. Earlier, Nomura China Chief Economist Lu Ting and his research team released their views on China's macroeconomy, stating that they have raised their forecast for China's Q2 GDP year-on-year growth rate from 3.7% to 4.8%. Looking at the whole year, the forecast for China's GDP growth rate has been raised from the previous 4.0% to 4.5%. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:China Securities Journal
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