The National Bureau of Statistics released the main economic data for May on the 16th. Driven by a package of stock policies and incremental policies, the overall operation of the national economy remained stable and made progress in May. Among them, the consumption performance was the most impressive, significantly exceeding market expectations. Experts believe that with the continued implementation of more proactive macro policies, the foundation for economic recovery will continue to solidify, and it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter will remain above 5.0%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual economic and social development goals. The national economy has withstood pressure and operated steadily, with consumption becoming the biggest highlight. Consumption is an important engine of economic growth. The release of consumer market vitality in May effectively supported the stable operation of the economy. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since early 2024 and significantly exceeding market expectations. The better than expected consumption performance in May was supported by various factors. ”Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, stated that firstly, residents' consumption ability and willingness have improved. In May, the urban surveyed unemployment rate dropped from 5.1% to 5.0%, and in April, the consumer confidence index rose from 87.5 to 87.8. Secondly, the release of holiday demand has driven the performance of related service industries. During the May Day holiday, the number of domestic tourists in China increased by 6.4% year-on-year, and the total travel expenses of domestic tourists increased by 8.0% year-on-year, both of which are the highest growth rates since the beginning of this year. The third is to continue to implement the policy of exchanging old for new. In May, the sales of goods related to the trade in program grew rapidly, with retail sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment, communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture products from units above designated size increasing by 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively. Together, it drove the total retail sales of consumer goods to increase by 1.9 percentage points, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, stated that with the support of the trade in policy, the demand for revitalizing and replacing major commodities such as automobiles, home appliances, and electronic consumption continues to be released, coupled with the early layout of e-commerce promotions such as "618", which helps to deepen the recovery of domestic demand. In the future, we can further strengthen consumer support for rural and sinking markets, and promote the formation of an internal circulation growth pattern with consumption as the core. Among other major indicators, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, continuing the stable growth trend. Among them, the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 9.0% and 8.6% respectively, continuing to serve as the backbone of industrial expansion. In terms of key products, the production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 40.0%, 35.5%, and 31.7% respectively year-on-year, showing a rapid development trend driven by multiple factors such as technological innovation, intelligent manufacturing, and green transformation. With the continuous optimization of industrial structure and the continuous improvement of enterprise expectations, under the policy of cost reduction, stable expectations, and market expansion at the national level, the industrial economy is expected to achieve further development, "Mingming said. In terms of investment, structural differentiation has further emerged, but manufacturing and infrastructure investment continue to grow at a relatively high level. From January to May, manufacturing investment increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate 4.8 percentage points higher than total investment; Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate 1.9 percentage points higher than total investment. Looking to the future: It is expected that the GDP in the second quarter will still achieve a growth rate of over 5.0%. Since the second quarter, facing the complex and changing external environment, China has implemented more proactive macro policies, increased countercyclical adjustments, fully demonstrated the important role of macro policies in stabilizing the economy, and laid a solid foundation for the stable operation of the economy in the next stage. Wen Bin stated that it is expected that the GDP in the second quarter will still maintain a growth level of over 5.0%. "The rapid growth in the first half of the year will lay a solid foundation for the task of achieving the annual economic and social development goals." Ma Hong, a senior researcher of the Guangkai Chief Industrial Research Institute, said that looking forward to the end of the second quarter of 2025, considering the major macro indicators in the year, such as industrial added value, fixed assets investment, and total retail sales of social consumer goods, the growth rate is faster than that of the same period in 2024, and the growth rate of net exports is far higher than that of the same period last year. It is expected that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first half of the year may be about 5.1%, higher than the annual growth target set at the. The current external environment is still complex and severe, with many unstable and uncertain factors. Experts suggest that stable growth policies may continue to be intensified in the second half of the year. Ma Hong stated that it is not ruled out that the government will launch a new round of incremental policies to support stable economic development at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, in order to hedge and mitigate external shocks. It is expected that in the next stage, the implementation speed of various project funds will accelerate, and the investment demand for local infrastructure construction is expected to be boosted, with overall domestic demand remaining stable. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, predicts that the central bank is expected to continue cutting interest rates in the second half of the year, and fiscal policy will also introduce new incremental measures to support the exchange of funds. In terms of real estate support policies, he suggested that in the future, while strengthening the acquisition of affordable housing, promoting the renovation of old buildings and urban villages, and increasing the disbursement of "white list" loans for real estate projects, it is also necessary to lower the interest rates of residential housing loans as the core and increase efforts to promote the stabilization of the real estate market. (New Society)