According to the arrangement of the National Bureau of Statistics, the economic data for June will be released gradually in mid month. Professor Su Jian from the School of Economics at Peking University and Director of the National Economic Research Center stated that it is expected that in the second quarter of 2025, the economic trend will remain stable, high-tech industries will develop rapidly, driving overall economic recovery, and consumption and foreign trade demand will slightly increase. It is expected that the GDP growth in the second quarter will be around 5.2%. With the continuous release of policy combination effects, the effect of stabilizing the economy and promoting development will become apparent. Multiple experts predict that the GDP in the second quarter will grow by around 5.2% year-on-year. From the supply side, the industrial added value from January to May increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. On the demand side, both consumption and foreign trade growth rates have increased to varying degrees. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to May increased by 5.0% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024; The total export value from January to May increased by 6.0% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the first quarter and 3.3 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The data shows that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry in June was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from May. Indicating that the economy is maintaining a recovery trend. ”Li Chao, Chief Economist of Zheshang Securities, stated. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that overall, it is expected that the GDP in the second quarter will increase by about 5.2% year-on-year, and the GDP in the first half of the year will increase by about 5.3% year-on-year. Li Chao stated that the countercyclical adjustment policies in the early stage will gradually be implemented to provide a bottoming out effect on the fundamentals, and the actual GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to reach around 5.2%. Industrial growth is expected to remain stable as the "two new" policies continue to drive domestic industrial demand. Multiple experts predict that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by 5.6% year-on-year in June. Data shows that the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7% in June, indicating a continued recovery in business sentiment. Among them, the new order index rebounded by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, and the new export order index rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%. The improvement rate of new orders is higher than that of new export orders, indicating that domestic demand is slightly better than external demand. ”Wen Bin said. Li Chao believes that from the perspective of domestic demand, on the one hand, large-scale equipment renovation and consumer goods trade in still have a strong driving effect on the production of equipment manufacturing industry; On the other hand, with the continued acceleration of construction projects in various regions, the industrial demand brought by the construction industry has been supported. Su Jian stated that in the context of the continuation of the "stable growth" policy, the base effect, infrastructure investment, and domestic demand stimulus will support the relatively stable growth rate of industrial added value in June 2025. After the concentrated release of demand during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in June is expected to slow down. Wen Bin predicts that the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in June will fall from 6.4% to around 6.0%. Although the zero growth rate of society slowed down in June, there is still good support for consumption growth. Wen Bin analyzed that one reason is the increasing popularity of the car market. From June 1st to 22nd, the retail sales of passenger cars in China increased by 24% year-on-year, the highest level since March; Secondly, the rise in domestic oil prices is expected to accelerate the growth rate of petroleum and product consumption; The third is the combination of trade in and "6.18", and the policy effect continues to emerge. Li Chao pointed out that the "6.18" promotional activities continue to operate at a high intensity. Although the early consumption overdraft has marginally weakened the consumption momentum in June, the overall sales performance is still impressive, which has significantly boosted the retail of physical goods and is the core support for commodity consumption. It is expected that exports in June will rise 6% year on year. On June 16, at the press conference on national economic operation in May 2025 held by the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, pointed out that from January to May, the import and export volume of China, ASEAN, the European Union and the countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" increased by 9.1%, 2.9% and 4.2% respectively. According to Su Jian's analysis, the recent significant growth of China EU trade, at the same time, China's export growth to countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" has continued to rise, which is the main support for China's current exports. In addition, according to PMI data, in June, China's manufacturing PMI new export order index increased by 0.2 percentage points month on month to 47.7%; The import order index increased by 0.7 percentage points month on month to 47.8%. Port data shows that China's port cargo throughput and port container throughput have increased by 3.9% and 10.9% respectively year-on-year. The freight rate data shows that China's comprehensive freight rate index for export containers has increased by 22.5% month on month. Wen Bin expects to export 325.8 billion US dollars in June, a year-on-year increase of 6%; Imports amounted to 212.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2%; Achieve a trade surplus of 113.2 billion US dollars. (New Society)