The financial data for June is about to be released. As a package of financial support measures gradually takes effect in May, what positive changes will occur in financial data? The reporter interviewed multiple experts to conduct a forward-looking analysis of the financial data for June. Overall, the industry generally expects that new RMB loans and social financing will increase month on month in June. Looking back at the data in May, there were 0.62 trillion yuan of new RMB loans and 2.29 trillion yuan of new social financing added that month. From the perspective of new RMB loans, Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, predicts that the new RMB loans in June will be about 2.1 trillion yuan, a significant increase compared to the previous quarter and basically unchanged compared to the same period last year. In the first half of this year, the intensive issuance of "debt to equity" replacement bonds means that the scale of implicit debt replacement in June is still relatively large, and the scale of new RMB loans will continue to decline. However, during the same period last year, the regulatory authorities' management of idle funds resulted in a significantly lower base of newly added loans in June of last year. In addition, the reserve requirement ratio cut was implemented in May this year. Recently, the central bank has comprehensively used policy tools such as MLF (Medium Term Lending Facility) and buyout reverse repurchase to continuously carry out net liquidity injections in the medium term. With abundant funds in the banking system, the bank's credit injection capacity will also be increased. At present, we are still in the stage of countercyclical adjustment, and increasing credit injection is an important support point for stable growth. In May, the central bank's interest rate cut drove down the LPR (Loan Market Quotation Rate), which will also stimulate the demand for credit financing in the real economy to a certain extent. According to a research report by Huayuan Securities, April and May are often the months of small credit disbursement, while June is the month of large disbursement. Despite the continued weak demand for credit, banks often rush to expand their credit scale in June to increase the loan balance at the end of the first half of the year, with an expected increase of 2.1 trillion yuan in new loans in June. Li Chao, Chief Economist of Zheshang Securities, predicts that RMB loans will increase by 1.9 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion yuan, and the corresponding growth rate will fall by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9%. From the perspective of new social financing, Wang Qing expects that the new social financing in June will be about 4 trillion yuan, which will increase seasonally on a month on month basis and also increase year-on-year. Except for new loans directed towards the real economy, which remained relatively stable compared to the same period last year, the main support for new social financing in June was still government bond financing. Driven by a more proactive fiscal policy this year, government bonds continued to be in their peak issuance period in June, with a net financing scale increasing by about 700 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut has driven down market interest rates, resulting in a decrease in the cost of corporate bond financing. The scale of corporate bond financing in June is expected to increase year-on-year and month on month. Considering the disruptive effect of implicit debt replacement on new RMB loans, the current increase in social financing is the main indicator for observing the financial support for the real economy. Recently, there has been a continuous year-on-year increase in new social financing, and the growth rate of existing social financing has accelerated, which is a concrete manifestation of the moderately loose monetary policy strengthening countercyclical adjustment this year. Li Chao predicts that social financing will increase by 3.8 trillion yuan in June, an increase of about 540 billion yuan year-on-year, corresponding to a growth rate increase of 0.1 percentage points to 8.8%. Huayuan Securities also predicts a social financing increase of 3.8 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase, mainly from net financing of government bonds and corporate bonds. Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held a regular meeting in the second quarter of 2025, which proposed that we should implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter cyclical adjustment, give better play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, increase the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and maintain stable economic growth and reasonable prices. Wang Qing believes that the next stage of monetary policy will further focus on reducing the financing costs of the real economy and guiding financial institutions to increase their monetary credit supply. It is expected that the central bank will implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts again around the end of the third quarter. This is an important driving force for promoting consumption, expanding investment, and guiding a moderate rebound in price levels in the second half of the year. In addition, it is expected that the central bank will further enrich its structural monetary policy toolbox in the second half of the year, and may establish targeted refinancing services for new industrialization, guiding more financial resources to enter fields such as technological innovation. (New Society)