Recently, reporters interviewed several industry insiders regarding the trends of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for June. The interviewed experts generally believe that in June, the domestic economic growth momentum continued to be stable, and the year-on-year CPI is expected to slightly rebound, while the year-on-year PPI may still be at a low level. Non food consumer prices are expected to improve marginally. Regarding the trend of CPI, Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, told reporters that it is expected that the CPI ratio in June will reach -0.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 0. According to a research report by Guosen Securities, the domestic CPI for June is expected to be around -0.1% month on month, with a slight year-on-year rebound in CPI. The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities predicts that the CPI for June will be 0.01% year-on-year and 0.02% month on month. According to the China International Capital Corporation (CICC) research report, the year-on-year CPI may remain unchanged at -0.1%. Although there are slight differences in the predicted values, the overall trend shows a year-on-year rebound in CPI in June. In terms of food prices, Wen Bin analyzed that in June, the supply of agricultural products entered the peak season, and prices continued to decline seasonally. Among them, summer seasonal fruits are concentrated on the market, with prices falling by 2.3% month on month; The imbalance between supply and demand of pork and eggs has further intensified, with prices falling by 2.3% and 6.4% respectively month on month; The prices of grain and oil products have slightly decreased, with a month on month decline of 0.3%. However, due to seasonal crop changes, climate, and transportation costs, vegetable prices increased by 1.3% month on month; The supply of freshwater fish is still tight, pushing up the prices of aquatic products. According to a research report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the Shouguang Vegetable Price Index in China turned from negative to positive year-on-year in June, and also stabilized month on month due to the impact of periodic high temperature weather and vegetable origin changes; Pork consumption is currently in the off-season, coupled with the accelerated pace of pig slaughter in the early stage, the supply is relatively sufficient compared to last year, and the industry as a whole is in the stage of capacity depletion. In June, the average pork price in 22 provinces decreased by 16.3% year-on-year and 2.3% month on month. In terms of non food prices, Wen Bin stated that in June, the potential supply risk of crude oil increased, weakening the negative impact of OPEC+production increase. In addition, with the recovery of upstream and downstream consumption of oil products due to seasonal factors after entering summer, as well as the increase in unconventional demand brought about by strategic reserve procurement, oil prices hit bottom and rebounded. Domestic refined oil prices were raised twice on June 3rd and June 17th, which will drive up energy prices. According to a research report by China International Capital Corporation, gasoline prices have stopped falling and rebounded. The policy of exchanging old for new products continues to promote consumption of household appliances and other products, while service consumption may show a moderate recovery. It is expected that non food consumption prices will improve marginally. Regarding the PPI trend, Wen Bin predicts that the PPI in June will be -0.1% month on month and -3.2% year-on-year, narrowing the decline compared to May (a year-on-year decrease of -3.3%). It is expected that PPI will be -2.78% year-on-year and -0.15% month on month. According to a research report by CICC, PPI may remain unchanged at -3.3% year-on-year. According to a research report by Guosen Securities, the month on month Producer Price Index (PPI) in June may have been around -0.3%, but it continued to decline to -3.4% year-on-year. Wen Bin analyzed that from an international perspective, international crude oil prices surged in June, with an average month on month increase of 9.1%, the highest monthly increase in nearly three years. Driven by the surge in crude oil prices, the CRB index has significantly increased, with an average month on month increase of 2.9%, the largest monthly month on month increase since February. The increase in other products besides crude oil is limited, with the monthly average of metal prices rising by 0.4% month on month and the monthly average of industrial raw material prices rising by 0.5% month on month, indicating that the demand side is still weak under the disturbance of tariffs. From a domestic perspective, the monthly average of the South China Industrial Products Index in June increased by 0.8% month on month, ending the previous three consecutive months of month on month decline. ”Wen Bin said. According to a research report by CICC, in terms of energy, the average price of Brent crude oil in June rebounded from $64.0 per barrel in May to $69.8 per barrel, with a narrowing year-on-year decline; The increase in electricity consumption during hot weather has provided some support for the price of thermal coal. In terms of black metal, real estate investment continues to drag down steel consumption, and prices of rebar and wire continue to decline. In terms of building materials, under the background of weak demand, the prices of cement and float glass are also under pressure. In terms of non-ferrous metals, copper prices have experienced a temporary rebound due to the easing of trade frictions and low inventory. The PMI sub item for June showed that both the purchase price index and the factory price index increased by 1.5 percentage points compared to May, with an implied PPI of -0.3% month on month. Looking ahead to the future, Mingming believes that the price side still faces the impact of external demand. On the one hand, oil prices may be under long-term pressure; On the other hand, upstream price pressure may be transmitted to downstream living materials and even CPI non food items. Overall, it is expected that the CPI will fluctuate around 0 in the second half of the year under the base effect, and the PPI bottoming out stage may be prolonged. (New Society)