Economy

For 19 consecutive months, the scale of China's foreign reserves has remained stable at over 3.2 trillion US dollars, with a slight increase

2025-07-09   

According to statistics released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on July 7th, as of the end of June this year, China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to $3317.4 billion, an increase of $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable at over 3.2 trillion US dollars for 19 consecutive months. In June of this year, influenced by macroeconomic policies and growth prospects of major economies, the US dollar index fell and global financial asset prices rose overall. Due to factors such as exchange rate conversion and changes in asset prices, the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased in the current month. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that in terms of currency, the US dollar index fell 2.5% in June to a three-year low of 96.9, while non US currencies collectively appreciated. The euro and pound rose 3.89% and 2.1% respectively against the US dollar. Due to the fact that foreign reserves are denominated in US dollars, the appreciation of non US currencies has increased the scale of foreign exchange reserves converted by exchange rates. In addition, in terms of assets, the hedged global bond index denominated in US dollars rose by 1.0%; The S&P 500 stock index rose 5.0%. The rise in global asset prices such as bonds and stocks also provides strong support for external reserves. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, also believes that the significant depreciation of the US dollar in June has significantly enhanced the effect of the significant appreciation of non US dollar assets in China's foreign reserves, which is the main reason for the expansion of the scale of foreign reserves in June. Secondly, the London economic and trade talks between China and the United States have once again released positive signals, with major global stock indexes generally showing a certain degree of increase, US bond yields declining, and US bond prices rising. As a result, the overall increase in global financial asset prices in China's foreign reserves at the end of June is also driving up the valuation of foreign reserves. According to different standards, the current scale of China's external reserves, which is slightly over 3 trillion US dollars, is at a moderately abundant level and is expected to remain basically stable in the short term. ”Wang Qing stated that in the context of increasing external environmental fluctuations, a moderately abundant scale of foreign reserves will provide important support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and will also become a ballast stone to resist various potential external shocks. Looking ahead, Wen Bin believes that China's economy will continue to grow steadily, foreign trade will remain resilient, and global investors are optimistic about new opportunities in China's capital market. These factors are all conducive to maintaining basic stability in the scale of foreign exchange reserves. The reserve asset data disclosed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that at the end of June this year, gold reserves were 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70000 ounces from the end of May. Pang Ming, a specially appointed senior researcher at the National Finance and Development Laboratory, analyzed that in the short term, the central bank continued to increase its gold holdings month on month for the eighth consecutive month in June, maintaining a steady pace of increasing its gold holdings. Currently, global geopolitical risks are becoming normalized, and the reliability of traditional safe haven assets such as the US dollar is systematically weakened. ”Wang Qing believes that as the globally recognized ultimate payment method, the importance of gold is becoming increasingly prominent. Global central banks can reduce their dependence on the US dollar by increasing their holdings of gold and promoting local currency settlement. In addition, as a non sovereign credit reserve asset that is not affected by unilateral sanctions, gold can effectively hedge the risk of a single currency, optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves, and its high liquidity has become a stable guarantee for the international payment system, which helps to enhance the credit of sovereign currencies. Pang Ming stated that in the long run, gold still has irreplaceable advantages in terms of hedging, anti inflation, and long-term preservation and appreciation. The policy motivation of China's central bank to add and dynamically adjust gold reserves in the international reserve portfolio allocation will not change. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Economic Daily

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