According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) of China rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June 2025, ending the previous four consecutive months of year-on-year decline and becoming an important turning point in the recent price trend. Experts believe that with the continued effectiveness of measures such as trade in and expanding domestic demand, coupled with the increased resilience of service consumption, CPI is expected to moderately rebound in the second half of the year, providing support for high-quality economic development. The year-on-year CPI has turned from a decline to an increase. The core CPI has reached a 14 month high. In June, the CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a four month continuous decline before turning to an increase. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced that the CPI's shift from decline to increase was mainly affected by the rebound in prices of industrial consumer goods. Affected by changes in international commodity prices, the prices of gold jewelry and platinum jewelry increased by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively year-on-year, with a total impact of about 0.21 percentage points on the year-on-year increase in CPI; The effect of promoting consumption policies continues to show, with prices of durable consumer goods for entertainment, home textiles, and household appliances rising by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% year-on-year, respectively; The decline in car prices is gradually narrowing, with prices of fuel powered cars and new energy cars decreasing by 3.4% and 2.5% respectively year-on-year this month, the smallest decline in nearly 28 months and 26 months, respectively. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, continued to rebound year-on-year, rising by 0.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, stated that the rebound of core CPI reflects the effectiveness of the "stabilizing growth" policy combination in optimizing the supply and demand structure of some industries, and is a positive manifestation of the gradual recovery of domestic demand. The data shows that the service consumption sector is also showing a good recovery trend. The arrival of graduation season has increased the demand for housing rental, driving up rental prices by 0.1%. In terms of service prices, Feng Lin, director of the research and development department of Oriental Jincheng, analyzed that after the "May Day" holiday and the Loong Boat Festival, the travel consumption demand of residents in June fell seasonally, and the prices of air tickets, transportation rental fees, hotel accommodation and tourism in the month turned from rising to falling month on month. However, under the background of low price base in the same period of last year, the year-on-year growth rate of service prices in the month remained unchanged, continuing to be at the level of 0.5%. The potential for service consumption continues to show, and in the second half of the year, CPI may remain at a low level with a moderate rebound. Yu Xiaoming, senior investment advisor at Jufeng Investment Consulting, said that the June CPI data showed a moderate trend, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating an overall stabilization of prices. The 0.5% year-on-year increase in service prices reflects the resilience of service consumption, and the unchanged month on month situation in rural areas sends a positive signal; Although there was a slight decrease of 0.1% in the first half of the year, the overall volatility is controllable. This not only leaves room for flexible adjustment of macro policies, but also reflects that the consumer market is gradually accumulating momentum, which is conducive to the stable operation of the economy. For the stock market, resilient sectors such as services may receive attention, and the overall market environment tends to be stable. Feng Lin analyzed that in the current complex and severe external economic and trade environment, measures to promote consumption such as trade in will be further strengthened, which will continue to provide important support for price trends. However, the current real estate market is still in a state of adjustment, and we need to pay attention to the potential "export to domestic sales" that may bring new downward pressure on prices in the later stage. Taking into account factors such as the latest price trend and the increase in the base of the same period last year, the year-on-year CPI in July may return to the negative range. At the same time, promoting a reasonable rebound in price levels in the second half of the year will become an important goal of macroeconomic policies, which will also open up space for fiscal stimulus to promote consumption and further interest rate cuts by the central bank. Wen Bin predicts that the CPI will show a low and moderate rebound trend in the second half of the year, with an expected year-on-year increase of around 0, higher than the -0.1% in the first half of the year. The core CPI is expected to rise by around 0.6% for the whole year, slightly higher than last year's 0.5%. Wen Bin stated that with the synergistic effect of a series of incremental policies and stock policies, especially the gradual implementation of the comprehensive rectification of "internal competition" policy, promoting the continuous improvement of supply and demand structure, it will play a supporting role in the prices of related industries. Meanwhile, the potential for service consumption continues to emerge, which will contribute to price increases in areas such as catering and accommodation, home services, elderly care and childcare, cultural tourism, and health services. (New Society)