Reasonable growth of financial aggregate supports stable strength of the real economy
2025-07-15
The latest data from the central bank shows that RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half of the year; At the end of June, the stock of social financing reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%; At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%... In the first half of the year, the total financial output maintained reasonable growth, supporting the solid strength of the real economy. Zou Lan, Vice President of the People's Bank of China, said at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on July 14 that in the next stage, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, pay close attention to and evaluate the transmission and actual effect of the policies implemented in the earlier stage, grasp the strength and pace of policy implementation according to the economic and financial situation at home and abroad and the operation of the financial market, better promote the expansion of domestic demand, stabilize social expectations, stimulate market vitality, and support the achievement of economic and social development goals and tasks throughout the year. The structure of the loan industry continues to optimize. In the first half of the year, credit showed the characteristics of "total growth and structural optimization". Yan Xiandong, Director of the Investigation and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, said that from the perspective of borrowers, loans from enterprises (institutions) are the main body of credit growth. In the first half of the year, loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 11.57 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.5% of all new loans and an increase of 6.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year. From the perspective of industry direction, the structure of the loan industry continues to optimize. The newly added loans are mainly invested in key areas such as manufacturing and infrastructure. In addition, the "five major articles" in the field of finance show the characteristics of "total volume growth and expanded coverage" of loans. Yan Xiandong stated that the scale of social financing has grown reasonably, and the financial system has effectively met the funding needs of the real economy. On the one hand, proactive fiscal policies have been implemented in advance, and the financial system has strengthened its cooperation, resulting in a significant increase in government bond financing compared to the same period last year. On the other hand, financial institutions provide stable credit support to the real economy. In the first half of the year, financial institutions increased their RMB loans to the real economy by 12.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 279.6 billion yuan year-on-year. The M2 broad money supply has rebounded compared to the same period last year, maintaining ample liquidity. ”Yan Xiandong's analysis shows that firstly, government bonds are issued earlier, leading to a significant increase in bond investment by financial institutions and corresponding currency derivatives; Secondly, stable credit growth also provides support for currency derivatives; In addition, the measures taken to rectify idle funds in the same period last year resulted in a lower base of money supply. The total financial output is expected to continue to maintain reasonable growth. Experts say that in the second half of the year, considering the mismatch effect of government bond issuance pace will gradually converge and heal, the low base effect of "manual interest rate supplement" governance will also gradually weaken, and the growth rate of financial aggregate will remain at a reasonable level. Our country's economy has strong endogenous driving force and long-term resilience. With the continued effectiveness of existing policies and the accelerated development of new industries and driving forces, domestic demand is expected to continue to expand, and the vitality of business entities will be further enhanced. As the demand for effective financing in society gradually improves, the financial sector will also continue to provide strong and effective support for the real economy. In recent years, the People's Bank of China has created and implemented a large number of structural monetary policy tools to support major strategies, key areas, and weak links. Zou Lan introduced that structural monetary policy tools have achieved full coverage of various fields in the "Five Great Articles" of finance, while strongly supporting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, capital market and other fields. Zou Lan introduced that the People's Bank of China launched a package of financial policy measures in May, many of which are structural monetary policy tools, to strengthen support for promoting economic structural transformation and upgrading. For example, risk sharing tools have been created for service consumption, pension refinancing, and technology innovation bonds. The service consumption and elderly care refinancing quota is 500 billion yuan, specifically used to incentivize and guide financial institutions to increase financial support for key areas of service consumption and the elderly care industry. The risk sharing tool for technology innovation bonds supports equity investment institutions to issue technology innovation bonds for financing, while also supporting the construction of the "technology board" in the bond market. These structural policy measures have been fully implemented and launched before the end of May, and have continued to play a positive role. ”Zou Lan introduced that as of the end of May, the contract amount for technology innovation and technological transformation loans has reached 1.74 trillion yuan, and enterprises can withdraw and use them at any time. The risk sharing tool for technology innovation bonds provides effective credit enhancement support for equity investment institutions to issue bonds for financing. As of the end of June, 27 equity investment institutions in the interbank market have issued technology innovation bonds totaling over 15 billion yuan. Zou Lan stated that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will play a dual role in both the quantity and structure of monetary policy tools. Structural monetary policy tools will continue to adhere to the principle of "focusing on key areas, being reasonable and moderate, and having both progress and retreat". On the basis of supporting the "five major articles" of finance, they will highlight the main lines of supporting technological innovation and boosting consumption, further enhancing their effectiveness in promoting economic structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and the transformation of old and new driving forces. Regarding the question of whether it is necessary for the People's Bank of China to take measures to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, Zou Lan stated that there are multiple factors that affect the exchange rate, such as economic growth, monetary policy, and financial markets. At present, there is still uncertainty in the trend of the US dollar, but the domestic fundamentals in China continue to improve, and the RMB exchange rate maintains a solid foundation of two-way floating and basic stability. China does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency depreciation. ”Zou Lan stated that the People's Bank of China's exchange rate policy stance is clear and consistent. It will continue to uphold the decisive role of the market in the formation of exchange rates, maintain exchange rate flexibility, strengthen expectation guidance, prevent exchange rate overshoot risks, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. In addition, regarding the relatively radical phenomenon of bond investment in individual financial institutions, Cao Yuanyuan, head of the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China, said that it is reasonable for small and medium-sized banks to choose to appropriately increase their holdings of bonds, increase safe asset allocation, and smooth the fluctuation of operating profits based on their own asset allocation. At the same time, banks' spontaneous buying and selling of bonds will also serve as a stabilizer for the market. The bond investment of small and medium-sized banks also needs to maintain a reasonable 'degree'. ”Cao Yuanyuan stated that it is necessary to strike a balance between investment returns and risk-taking. For some financial institutions with aggressive bond investments, they should pay attention to the interest rates and credit risks faced by their bonds. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:China Securities Journal
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