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Understanding the 'gold content' of China's semi annual economic report

2025-07-17   

GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year! On July 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released its semi annual economic report, with main indicators better than expected and accumulating positive factors. The Chinese economy continues to maintain a steady and positive development trend, leading the world among major economies. This is a semi annual report with very high "gold content". Where is the "gold" mainly reflected? What new features are included? What impact will it have on the economic operation in the second half of the year? (1) Things are not difficult without going through them, but they are easy yet arduous. Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has been complex and ever-changing, unilateralism and protectionism have significantly intensified, the international economic and trade order has suffered heavy blows, and instability and uncertainty have significantly increased. Especially since the second quarter, the international situation has undergone rapid changes, and external pressure has continued to increase. The Chinese economy has withstood the pressure and risen to the challenge. In the first half of the year, the overall economic operation was stable and steadily improving. Despite the unfavorable situation, China's economy has achieved remarkable results, with full "gold content" and obvious new characteristics. From the perspective of the four major macro indicators, the economic growth rate in the first half of the year increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the whole year, showing a stable and slightly upward trend; The monthly survey shows that the unemployment rate fluctuates within the range of 5.0% to 5.4%, and overall remains stable; After several months of year-on-year decline of 0.1%, CPI has turned from negative to positive and increased by 0.1%, maintaining a low level of operation; The import and export of goods reached a new high in the same period, foreign exchange reserves remained above 3.2 trillion US dollars, and the international balance of payments was basically balanced... It is not difficult to see that the biggest characteristic of China's economy is still "stability". From the perspective of industrial system construction, all aspects unswervingly promote economic transformation and high-quality development, especially under the support of the national "double" and "two new" policies, all regions vigorously implement the renovation and transformation of traditional industries, actively connect with the "Internet plus+", "AI+", "digital+" transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, accelerate the pace of industrial transformation, and solidly promote high-quality development. From the perspective of the development of new quality productivity, new industries, new technologies, and new formats continued to maintain rapid development in the first half of the year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.5% year-on-year, the added value of core industries in the digital economy accounted for about 10% of GDP, and the output of new energy vehicles increased by more than 30% year-on-year. Innovative achievements continue to emerge, and emerging industries are thriving. From the perspective of smooth domestic circulation, a series of policies have been introduced to support the expansion of domestic demand, promote production, and smooth circulation. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth was 68.8%, of which the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure was 52%. The freight turnover increased by 5.1% year-on-year, and the passenger turnover increased by 4.9%. The flow of people, logistics, and capital is all improving, making the domestic circulation more smooth. The main characteristics of the Chinese economy in the first half of the year are the sustained stability, firm progress, accumulation of new momentum, and smooth improvement in circulation. These are also the "gold" in the "gold content". (2) The first half of the year was not easy, what about the second half? Looking outward, the external environment is still complex and ever-changing, the global trade pattern is still undergoing deep adjustments, and countries are urgently adjusting to the impact of the United States' excessive tariffs. The global economic recovery is weak, and there are still many external unstable and uncertain factors. Looking inward, effective demand is still insufficient, social expectations are still weak, there are still bottlenecks in the domestic circulation, "internal competition" still exists partially, internal structural contradictions have not been fundamentally alleviated, and the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be strengthened and consolidated. The situation in the second half of the year remains complex and severe. We must not only face difficulties and challenges, but also strengthen our confidence and maintain determination. Confidence comes from a steady and progressive development trend. In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy withstood pressure and tests, fully demonstrating its ability to withstand pressure and strong resilience, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual expected goals. Recently, multiple international investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Deutsche Bank have raised their expectations for China's economic growth, demonstrating the confidence of international institutions in China's economic development. Confidence comes from the macro trend of high-quality development. After years of transformation, the service industry has contributed over 60% to economic growth; The consumer market is becoming more active, and the "ballast stone" role of economic growth is becoming more prominent; The trade dependence on a single country has decreased to single digits, making foreign trade more resilient; New driving forces continue to grow, new industries, new formats, and new models continue to maintain a fast growth rate, and the momentum of high-quality development is strong. Confidence comes from positive and proactive policy trends. Since the beginning of this year, more proactive and effective macro policies have been coordinated and played a strong role in providing support. Recently, relevant departments will accelerate the introduction of policies for the second half of the year, which will continue to play a key supporting role in the stable operation of the economy. At the same time, we must firmly believe that China has a rich policy toolbox, and the central government is also strengthening its policy reserves, which will be introduced in a timely manner according to market changes. (3) Halfway through the 2025 schedule, there will be many major and important events in the second half of the year, and doing a good job in economic work is the foundation and prerequisite. In the face of complex situations, only by coordinating domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, steadfastly doing our own job well, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, can we cope with external uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development and continue to promote the stable and far-reaching development of the Chinese economy. Consumption is the driving force behind economic growth, and boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand remain the most urgent tasks in the second half of the year. The supporting factors and development trend of consumption in the first half of the year will continue, and at the same time, efforts will be made to accelerate and introduce policies to stimulate consumption subsidies, improve the consumption environment, increase the supply of high-quality consumption, and enhance the role of consumption in driving economic growth. The dominance of domestic demand and internal recyclability are the unique advantages of a large country's economy, and the domestic circulation still needs to be further streamlined. Based on the current development situation in China, the urgent task is to further eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation, deepen the market-oriented allocation reform of factors, accelerate the construction of a unified national market, and better drive the international circulation with the domestic circulation. Openness is the source of vitality for the Chinese economy, and expanding the "circle of friends" and promoting trade diversification are still urgent needs. The net export of goods and services contributed 31.2% to economic growth in the first half of the year, with the contribution rate dropping to 23% in the second quarter due to the impact of the trade war. Further expansion of foreign trade space is needed to reduce reliance on a single market risk and effectively respond to external shocks. Investment plays a crucial role in expanding domestic demand and promoting development, and investment enthusiasm and potential still need to be fully unleashed. In the first half of the year, the nominal growth rate of investment fell back, but after deducting prices, the actual growth rate of fixed assets investment was basically stable. At this stage, fixed assets investment still has great potential. The key is to improve the investment environment and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment. If the economy is stable, people's hearts will be stable and the overall situation will be stable. Looking forward to the upward leap of the Chinese economy, with increasing "gold content". (New Society)

Edit:Luo yu Responsible editor:Zhou shu

Source:Southern Daily

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