The National Bureau of Statistics released the "Half Year Report" on the Chinese economy on the 15th, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of 6605.36 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. Thanks to the effective implementation of various policies to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, the vitality of the consumer market continues to increase, which strongly supports the growth of GDP in the first half of the year. Analysts believe that in the future, the efforts to promote consumption policies will be further intensified, and coupled with the orderly issuance of funds for trade in, there will be support for consumption growth in the second half of the year. According to data, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth exceeded 50%. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2.45458 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. In the second quarter, the growth rate was 5.4%, which was 0.8 percentage points faster than the first quarter and increased quarter by quarter. Compared to last year's data, the year-on-year growth rate of social media in the first half of this year has accelerated by 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and by 1.5 percentage points compared to the whole year of last year. In the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods accelerated, and market activity increased, which strongly supported the growth of GDP in the first half of the year. ”Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that consumption contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year when discussing the performance of the consumer market. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that the strengthening and expansion of the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods has driven the overall recovery of zero growth rate in society. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of goods related to trade in programs such as home appliances, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture was over 20%. On June 26th, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that the sales of goods related to the trade in program have exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan since the beginning of this year. We estimate that in the first half of the year, the policy of exchanging old for new has accelerated the zero growth rate of society by more than 1 percentage point, indicating that the policy is becoming a powerful lever for fiscal promotion of consumption. ”Wang Qing said. In addition, there were many highlights in the consumer market in the first half of the year. Among them, the service retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the commodity retail sales increased by 5.1%. In the consumption structure, the proportion of service consumption is increasing. Green consumption is gradually becoming a new trend. In the first half of the year, the consumption of new energy vehicles, energy-saving home appliances, and smart home appliances continued to grow rapidly. In addition, "China tourism" and "China shopping" continue to heat up, especially after the expansion of visa free "friend circles", more tourists come to China for tourism, which also drives domestic consumption. The data shows that the number of foreigners who apply visa free policy to enter China during the May Day holiday and the Dragon Boat Festival holiday increased by 72.7% and 59.4% respectively year on year. New consumption patterns and business formats are constantly emerging. Self pleasure consumption, emotional consumption, and some new personalized and diversified consumption are all flourishing. What is the consumption trend in the second half of the year? However, based on the data for the month of June, the year-on-year growth rate of social media zero in June was 4.8%, which slowed down by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month and was lower than market expectations. On a month on month basis, the June social zero quarter on quarter decline was 0.16%, showing a significantly weaker performance than the seasonal trend. Multiple institutions believe that this may be mainly related to the marginal weakening of the effect of the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods due to the suspension of "national subsidies" in many places during the month due to the progress of fund disbursement. Regarding this, Sheng Laiyun stated that consumer policies will continue to be strengthened. "Relevant parties have announced that in the second half of the year, the subsidy policy for stimulating consumption has been introduced in succession, and local governments will continue to introduce relevant measures to promote consumption." Li Chao mentioned earlier that in the aspect of consumer goods trade in, the ultra long term special treasury bond fund support is 300 billion yuan, and the first two batches of 162 billion yuan have been issued in January and April respectively as planned. According to the established work schedule, the third batch of consumer goods trade in funds for this year will be issued in July. When it comes to the future consumption trend, Sheng Laiyun believes that in the first half of the year, the Chinese consumer market became more active and developed positively under a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption. This means that there is support for consumer development in the second half of the year. The influencing factors and consumption trends of the first half of the year will continue in the second half, "said Sheng Laiyun. Analysts believe that future policies to promote consumption are expected to continue to increase, coupled with the orderly issuance of funds for trade in programs, which will support consumption growth in the second half of the year. Wang Qing expects that in response to the demand for "export to domestic sales" and the impact of tariff policy uncertainty on residents' consumption confidence, the intensity of consumer promotion policies will be further increased in the future. Under the comprehensive effect of various consumer promotion policies, the zero growth rate of society will further accelerate in the second half of the year, and is expected to reach around 6.0% for the whole year, which is 2.5 percentage points faster than the previous year. ”Wang Qing said. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, predicts that in the next stage, macroeconomic policies will focus on two main lines, and expanding domestic demand is one of them. In terms of expanding domestic demand, there is still a lot of room for stock policies. ”Wen Bin said that the amount of special bonds and ultra long term special treasury bond is sufficient and will continue to play a supporting role in promoting consumption and benefiting people's livelihood. The China Galaxy Macro Research Report mentioned that although the growth rate slowed down in June, the policy and consumption upgrading trends are expected to support the consumption growth rate in the second half of the year. (New Society)