"Our missile factory is operating round the clock." In the recent Israeli Iraqi conflict, when Iranian and Israeli missiles were interwoven into a firenet over the Middle East, Türkiye, known as "NATO's second largest military force", was accelerating the production of ballistic missiles. On the third day of the Israeli Iraqi conflict, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a cabinet meeting and said: "In view of recent developments, we are making plans to raise Türkiye's inventory of medium - and long-range ballistic missiles to a level of deterrence." Analysts believe that, from the perspective of the layout of military strength construction and the direction of key construction in recent years, Türkiye is trying to reconstruct the power structure in the Middle East by increasing its inventory of medium - and long-range ballistic missiles, and achieve the transformation from a "regional balancer" to a "deterrent power". The chain reaction brought about by the Israeli Iraqi conflict "boosts" Türkiye to accelerate the research, development and production of medium and long range ballistic missiles. The Israeli military's surprise attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran, and various strategic places not only severely damaged Iran's military force and its nuclear program, but also triggered a strategic earthquake in Türkiye. The leader of Türkiye's National Action Party, Devlet Bakhcelli, warned: "The firelight over Tehran lights up the security deficit of all countries in the region... Israel's actions in Iran, to some extent, are a dangerous signal to Türkiye." In fact, since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian Israeli conflict in October 2023, Turkish Israeli relations have become more tense. Erdogan has repeatedly accused Israel in public as "the biggest threat to regional security". In April this year, the two countries nearly went off the rails on the Syrian issue. The location where Israel attacked Syrian military targets was the area where Türkiye planned to establish military bases. As a regional military power, Türkiye has always attached importance to the development of military industry. In 2024, Türkiye's arms exports hit a new high of 7.154 billion US dollars, becoming the 11th largest arms exporter in the world. Unlike the "star effect" of equipment such as the "TB-2" UAV in regional conflicts, Türkiye's breakthrough in the field of ballistic missiles is more strategic. In October 2022, Türkiye successfully test fired the "Typhoon" ballistic missile, with a range of more than 500 kilometers. The missile uses an efficient solid fuel engine with great upgrade flexibility. By increasing the diameter and length of the missile body, its range can be further extended to around 1000 kilometers. However, the 1000 km range can only cover a small number of key targets in the Middle East, so Türkiye's next generation ballistic missile research and development target is directly targeted at the 2000 km deterrent radius. The relevant report of Türkiye Space Agency shows that the thermal separation technology of the two-stage rocket under development is about to achieve a breakthrough, which will provide key technical support for Türkiye to complete the prototype test of a new ballistic missile by 2027. The strategic anxiety caused by the asymmetric power between Turkey and Israel makes Türkiye, which is determined to play a supporting role in the Middle East, clearly feel that its geo elasticity is being compressed by Israel. Analysts assess that Israel's active multi-mode anti missile system can maintain a high interception rate against Türkiye's missiles, and whether Türkiye's S-400 air defense missile system can effectively respond to Israel's F-35 fighters remains questionable. In the Israel Iran conflict, Iran suffered significant losses, but there were still medium to long range ballistic missiles such as "Castle Destroyer" and "Mudstone" retaliating. However, due to its short range and limited payload, Türkiye's "Typhoon" ballistic missile is difficult to pose a substantial threat to Israel. For Türkiye, if it can take the opportunity of the Iraq conflict to speed up the development and installation of a large number of medium - and long-range ballistic missiles, its strategic significance will not be limited to balancing Israel, but will greatly enhance Türkiye's voice in the Middle East. If Türkiye successfully develops a ballistic missile with a range of about 2000 kilometers, its strike range can cover a large area of Eurasia. Such strategic deterrence capability, together with the current relatively "active" foreign policy, will enable Türkiye to gain more initiative in the complex geopolitical game. It is worth noting that Türkiye's strategic ambition to develop medium - and long-range missiles faces many challenges. Firstly, the shortage of relevant talents has increased the difficulty of breaking through technological barriers. Stimulated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European countries actively recruited talents to promote defense independence, and Türkiye accelerated the loss of military scientific and technological talents. Affected by this, Türkiye has made relatively slow breakthroughs in key technologies such as multi-stage solid rocket motors, high-energy rocket propellants, orbit change technology, multi warhead homing and so on. Secondly, NATO led by the United States does not want Israel to be threatened by Türkiye's missiles. Based on its strategic interests in the Middle East, the United States may directly refuse to provide technical support such as key parts and GPS to Türkiye, or use its refusal to rejoin the F-35 fighter project as a bargaining chip to put pressure on Turkey. At the same time, Russia is unlikely to provide key technical support to Türkiye, and Türkiye has to face the strategic dilemma of multiple containment. Thirdly, Türkiye's weak economy led to the devaluation of its currency lira, and the cost of key imported components for missile production soared. If the ballistic missile production capacity is significantly increased, other budgets will be further compressed, and Türkiye will be difficult to balance production capacity and budget. Türkiye's development of medium and long range ballistic missiles is not only a gesture to deal with the crisis, but also a regional power's persistent pursuit of power reconstruction in the Middle East. If Türkiye significantly increases the range of ballistic missiles and achieves mass production, it may face coordinated countermeasures from Israel, the United States and Greece, which has sovereignty disputes with Turkey. Therefore, Türkiye's ballistic missile upgrading and production expansion plan will inevitably impact the regional military pattern, and even plunge Turkey into a new "security dilemma". (New Society)