Economy

What signals do these new proposals send when the Politburo meeting sets the tone for economic work in the second half of the year?

2025-07-31   

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 30th to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year. A series of new proposals and deployments in the meeting have pointed out the direction for the next stage of economic work. Macro policies need to be continuously strengthened and timely intensified. Since the beginning of this year, China has accelerated the implementation of more proactive and effective macro policies, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year. The meeting fully affirmed the achievements of the first half of the year, stating that "China's economic operation has made steady progress and achieved new results in high-quality development", but also pointed out that "the current operation of China's economy still faces many risks and challenges, and we must correctly grasp the situation and enhance our awareness of potential risks". For the economic work in the second half of the year, the meeting proposed that 'macroeconomic policies should continue to be strengthened and timely efforts should be made'. This means that although the economy has made steady progress in the first half of the year, macroeconomic policies will still maintain a stable growth orientation in the second half, "said Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng. He believes that 'sustained efforts' refer to ensuring the implementation of existing policies; Timely strengthening "refers to increasing policy intensity according to changes in the situation. "In the second half of the year, depending on the actual situation, macro policies may introduce new major incremental measures in the direction of stabilizing growth. This includes implementing more vigorous interest rate cuts, fiscal policies' three arrows' - raising the fiscal deficit ratio, increasing the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond, increasing the amount of new special debt, and more efforts to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize." The Conference on Effectively Releasing the Potential of Domestic Demand emphasized "effectively releasing the potential of domestic demand". Analysts believe that expanding domestic demand remains a key task in the second half of the year. Consumption and investment together constitute domestic demand. In terms of consumption, the meeting pointed out that "we will deepen the implementation of the special action to boost consumption, while expanding commodity consumption, cultivate new growth points for service consumption." "Domestic demand focuses on consumption, and consumption focuses on service consumption. ”Li Chao, Chief Economist of Zheshang Securities, stated that the high added value of service consumption and strong employment driving effect can play a greater role in stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand. In addition, the meeting emphasized the need to expand consumer demand while ensuring and improving people's livelihoods. Li Chao stated that recent policies related to people's livelihoods, such as childcare subsidies, childcare services, and free preschool education, have been implemented intensively, aiming to further unleash consumption potential through livelihood security. In terms of investment, the conference proposed to "promote the 'dual' construction with high quality, stimulate the vitality of private investment, and expand effective investment." "The private economy has played an important role in investment, and private investment has become the main force of investment in high-end equipment manufacturing industry, and has shown strong market vitality in the field of scientific and technological innovation. ”Ma Hong, a senior researcher at Guangkai's Chief Industry Research Institute, stated that in the second half of the year, driven by a series of supportive policies, private investment will play a greater role in boosting domestic demand. The conference on high-quality urban renewal proposed to implement the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference and carry out high-quality urban renewal. Analysts believe that this will benefit multiple industries, including real estate. Chen Wenjing, Director of Policy Research at Zhongzhi Research Institute, stated that urban renewal has become a key focus in promoting high-quality urban development and a focal point in the real estate sector. In the future, various supporting policies are expected to accelerate their implementation. In the future, it is expected that there will still be room for more policies to strengthen and promote the stabilization of the real estate market. In the second half of the year, policies to stabilize the real estate market will be further intensified. ”Wang Qing said, "Among them, reducing the interest rate of residents' housing loans is the key to stimulating the demand for home purchases and reversing the expectations of the real estate market." In addition, as urban renewal enters a stage of high-quality development, other industries that conform to the new development concept will also gain new opportunities. At the seminar on the review of the development of the photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2025 and the outlook for the second half of the year held on July 25th, Zhao Yonghong, Executive Deputy Secretary General of the Optoelectronic Building Professional Committee of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, stated that urban renewal and low-carbon transformation will become new market highlights for the photovoltaic industry in the future. Urban renewal can improve residents' lives, promote urban economic development, enhance urban image and quality, and achieve sustainable development of cities. The increasing attention of the government and various sectors of society to urban renewal has also brought huge development opportunities for photovoltaic construction practitioners. This year marks the end of the "14th Five Year Plan" and the year of planning and layout for the "15th Five Year Plan". The meeting studied suggestions on formulating the 15th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting pointed out that the "Tenth Five Year Plan" period is a critical period for basically realizing the foundation of socialist modernization and making all-round efforts. China's development environment is facing profound and complex changes. Strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist, and uncertainties and unpredictable factors increase. At the same time, China's economic foundation is stable, with many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential. The supporting conditions and basic trends for long-term improvement have not changed. The advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the advantages of a super large market, the advantages of a complete industrial system, and the advantages of enriching human resources are more obvious. To maintain strategic determination, strengthen confidence in winning, actively identify changes, and seek changes, focus on doing their own things well, win strategic initiatives in fierce international competition, and promote major breakthroughs in strategic tasks related to the overall situation of Chinese path to modernization. The meeting proposed to do a good job in the preparation of the 15th Five Year Plan. Li Chao stated that it is expected that in the "15th Five Year Plan", new quality productivity will be the core issue, and industrial upgrading will still be a priority policy goal. In addition, the governance of disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with the law and regulations will also be reflected in the framework of deepening the construction of a unified national market, forming a medium - and long-term plan for the "15th Five Year Plan". (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:China.org.cn

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