Since the beginning of this year, the total financial output has maintained reasonable growth, supporting the solid strength of the real economy. The financial data for July is about to be released. The reporter interviewed multiple experts and institutions to forecast the situation of new RMB loans and social financing in July. From the perspective of the industry, although experts and institutions have different predictions on the new RMB loans in July, they all expect a year-on-year increase in new social financing. Looking back at July last year, there were 260 billion yuan in new RMB loans and 770.8 billion yuan in new social financing. From the perspective of new credit, Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that July is a small month for credit, with an expected increase of about 350 billion yuan in RMB loans. On the one hand, continuing the supportive orientation of monetary policy and guiding financial institutions to increase credit injection is an important driving force. It can be seen that in July, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") continued to inject medium-term liquidity on a large scale to enhance the bank's ability to extend credit. At the same time, regulatory authorities are pushing banks to accelerate the disbursement of real estate "whitelist" projects and enhance support for consumer loans for residents. On the other hand, in the first half of the year, local government bonds were issued in a concentrated manner to replace implicit debt, and in the second half of the year, the disturbance of debt replacement on new RMB loans weakened. According to the research reports of Huayuan Securities and Xingye Research Company, it is expected that the new loan scale in July will be 200 billion yuan. From the perspective of new social financing, Li Chao, Chief Economist of Zheshang Securities, predicts that social financing will increase by 1.46 trillion yuan in July. In terms of direct financing, it is expected that the main year-on-year support for social financing will come from government bonds. High frequency data shows that the net financing scale of government bonds in July was about 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of about 576.9 billion yuan year-on-year; It is expected that the net financing scale of corporate bonds in July will be 370 billion yuan, an increase of 166.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of undiscounted bills, it is expected that undiscounted bills will continue to experience negative growth in July, with an increase slightly smaller than the same period last year. According to the research report of Xingye Research Company, the growth rate of social financing is expected to continue to rise in July under the financial push. From the perspective of government bonds, the issuance of local government bonds has further accelerated, and the net financing of government bonds in July continued to be above one trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase. Based on the scale of credit, the expected increase in social financing in July is 1.65 trillion yuan. Wang Qing expects that social financing will increase by about 1.7 trillion yuan in July, continuing the significant year-on-year growth trend of last month. Apart from a certain increase in new loans directed towards the real economy compared to the same period last year, the main support for new social financing in July is still government bond financing. Recently, the central bank held a work conference for the second half of 2025 and a regular and long-term promotion meeting for the central inspection and rectification work. The meeting proposed to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. By comprehensively utilizing various monetary policy tools, maintaining sufficient liquidity, guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable credit growth, and matching the expected goals of social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and overall price levels. Ensure the implementation of various monetary policy measures, facilitate the transmission of monetary policy, and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. Looking ahead to the follow-up monetary policy, Wang Qing believes that the next stage of monetary policy will focus on reducing the financing costs of the real economy and guiding financial institutions to increase their monetary credit supply. The most effective policy tool among them is interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. It is expected that the central bank may implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts again around the end of the third quarter, which is also an important driving force for promoting consumption, expanding investment, and guiding a moderate rebound in price levels in the second half of the year. At the same time, the People's Bank of China will also resume trading of treasury bond in due time, and comprehensively use policy tools such as MLF (Medium term Loan Facility) and buyout reverse repurchase to maintain sufficient market liquidity. This not only facilitates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and cooperates with government bond issuance, but also helps to prevent and control financial risks and stabilize market expectations. (New Society)