On September 1, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as "the central bank") carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 182.7 billion yuan in the form of fixed interest rate and quantitative bidding, and the operating interest rate remained unchanged at 1.4%. Given that 288.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on that day, the central bank's open market achieved a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan. This week, the public market is experiencing a large-scale reverse repurchase expiration. In addition to the 182.7 billion yuan on September 1st, there will be a cumulative reverse repurchase expiration of 1984.7 billion yuan from September 2nd to September 5th. At the same time, on September 5th, there is a 3-month buyout reverse repurchase of 1 trillion yuan due. In addition, there will be 300 billion yuan of 6-month buyout reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan of MLF (Medium Term Lending Facility) due this month. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, stated in an interview that compared to August, there has been an increase in financial disturbances in September. In addition to the above-mentioned maturing funds, the issuance of government bonds in September is still at its peak; The maturity amount of interbank certificates of deposit of commercial banks in the current month was about 3.5 trillion yuan, which was the second highest level of the year; The current strengthening of the stock market and the obvious phenomenon of residents' deposits' relocation will also lead to a certain degree of tightening of the capital situation. However, as September is a month of low fiscal revenue and high expenditure, fiscal revenue and expenditure will provide some support for the funding situation. According to a research report by Tianfeng Securities, the main reason for the fund disturbance in early September was the large maturity scale of the public market. However, referring to the situation in July and August, the self initiated loosening of the fund situation at the beginning of the month may dominate, coupled with the gradual increase in fiscal expenditure at the end of the season, supplementing liquidity. The fund interest rate is expected to continue to operate at a "low level and low wave". Wang Qing expects that the central bank will continue to strengthen reverse repurchase operations in September to ensure sufficient liquidity in the short-term market. In response to the tightening of liquidity in the medium to long term, the central bank may continue the MLF and buyout style reverse repo volume expansion model in September. This move will not only help stabilize market expectations and maintain ample liquidity, but also signal the continued strengthening of quantitative policy tools, demonstrating the supportive stance of monetary policy. Looking back at the previous operations of the central bank, as of August, the central bank has continued to increase its MLF for three consecutive months, and has also maintained net investment in buyout style reverse repurchase for three consecutive months. It is worth mentioning that in January this year, the Central Bank announced a phased suspension of buying treasury bond bonds in the open market. Up to now, the Central Bank has not carried out the operation of buying and selling treasury bond bonds in the open market. The People's Bank of China previously stated in the Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the First Quarter of 2025 that it would continue to observe and evaluate the operation of the bond market from the perspective of macro prudence, pay attention to the changes in the yield of treasury bond, and resume operations at the right time depending on the market supply and demand. As for whether the central bank will resume trading of treasury bond this year, Wang Qing believed that in view of the recent rise in the yield of 10-year treasury bond to around 1.8%, the widening of the term interest margin, and the moderate force of the future stable growth policy, the central bank is expected to resume trading of treasury bond in the fourth quarter. (New Society)