On September 3rd, the onshore exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose slightly. According to Wind data, as of 16:30 on the same day, the market exchange rate was 7.1468 yuan, up 8 basis points from the previous trading day's closing price. Recently, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have shown an upward trend. Experts say that the rapid rise of the RMB exchange rate is driven by a resonance of internal and external factors, including the relatively mild external environment created by the weak operation of the US dollar index, the strong exchange rate expectation guidance released by the RMB against the US dollar middle rate quotation, and the recent impressive performance of the domestic equity market or to some extent attracting foreign investment inflows. Looking ahead, the RMB exchange rate will remain relatively stable at a reasonable and balanced level. On September 3rd, there was a slight divergence in the trend of onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar. According to Wind data, as of 16:30 on the same day, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.1468 yuan, up 8 basis points from the previous trading day, and the highest intraday price was reported at 7.1374 yuan. The offshore RMB exchange rate slightly fell against the US dollar, closing at 7.1459 yuan at 16:30, a decrease of 74 basis points from the previous trading day's closing price. On September 3rd, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar also slightly decreased. According to data from China Money Network, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar was 7.1108 yuan on that day, a decrease of 19 basis points from the previous trading day. Looking at it over time, the overall trend of the RMB against the US dollar has been relatively strong recently. According to Wind data, on August 29th, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a intraday high of 7.1260 yuan; On August 29th, the offshore Chinese yuan reached an intraday high of 7.1155 yuan against the US dollar, breaking the 7.12 yuan mark and setting a new high since December last year. As of 16:30 on September 3, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have risen by 0.64% and 0.88% respectively since August; Since the beginning of this year, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have risen by 2.08% and 2.61% respectively. According to data from China Monetary Network, as of September 3rd, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has risen by 386 basis points since August; Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative increase has been 776 basis points. Since late August, the Chinese yuan has shown a rapid appreciation trend against the US dollar, with both the spot exchange rate and the central parity rate strengthening together. ”Li Liuyang, Chief Analyst of Foreign Exchange Research at CICC Research Department, said. Multiple factors are driving expert analysis, and the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in this round is mainly driven by multiple factors. External factors such as the weakening of the US dollar have driven the rapid appreciation of the Chinese yuan exchange rate. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has experienced a significant decline, while the appreciation of the Chinese yuan ranks relatively low among non US currencies, reflecting the demand for replenishment, "said Li Liuyang. Lu Zhe, Chief Economist of Dongwu Securities and Co Director of the Research Institute, stated that in August, with the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut heating up in the foreign exchange market and the continued structural weakness of the US dollar index, the spot exchange rate of the RMB appreciated rapidly. The recent improvement in cross-border capital flows has accelerated the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that the recent impressive performance of the domestic equity market may have attracted foreign investment to a certain extent, and the RMB exchange rate has experienced a rapid appreciation. Li Liuyang stated that the recent improvement in cross-border capital flows in the stock market may directly boost the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In addition, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar also sends a strong exchange rate expectation guidance signal. Since July, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has maintained a gradual appreciation, and the guiding signals released have gradually been absorbed by the market, "said Lu Zhe. Li Liuyang believes that the significant strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is partly due to the accelerated appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar's central parity rate. In his view, the recent announcement by the People's Bank of China to issue 45 billion yuan of offshore RMB central bank bills and a slight increase in CNH Hibor (offshore RMB Hong Kong interbank offered rate) may lead to a tightening of offshore RMB liquidity, which is considered another reason for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. Experts believe that the current stable and positive momentum of China's economy will be further consolidated. With policy coordination and fundamental support, the RMB exchange rate will maintain basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level in the future. Since August, various policies have shown remarkable effectiveness, driving market confidence to rebound. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, stated that in the future, with the continued effectiveness of various policies, the stable and positive trend of the economy will be further consolidated, laying a solid foundation for the stable operation of the RMB exchange rate. Looking ahead, the RMB exchange rate is likely to continue its steady trend. ”Cheng Shi, Chief Economist of ICBC International, stated that on the one hand, China's economic structural transformation continues to deepen, with consumption upgrading, technological innovation, and green transformation continuously nurturing new growth drivers, providing solid support for international balance of payments and capital markets; On the other hand, under the coordinated efforts of policies, China's assets still have relative attractiveness, which helps to stabilize cross-border capital flows. Mingming clearly stated that the RMB exchange rate is expected to gradually return to the "three in one" of onshore, offshore, and central parity rates, and it is expected that the related demand for foreign exchange settlement will continue to support the strength of the RMB exchange rate. Focusing on the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the second quarter of 2025 proposes to monitor and analyze cross-border capital flows, adhere to bottom line thinking, implement comprehensive policies, enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, prevent exchange rate overshoot risks, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. (New Society)