In a review of a confrontation training, a certain unit blindly issued instructions based on convention instead of adopting flexible response measures according to the actual situation. In response to issues such as weak practical awareness, the influence of empiricism, and insufficient adaptability, the unit drew lessons from others, targeted key points, identified weaknesses, and made up for deficiencies, and focused on improving the commander's ability to handle situations when they arise. In psychology, there is a term called "projection effect", which refers to the unconscious projection of past experiences and subjective cognition onto the current situation, using inherent thinking patterns to cope with new situations and solve new problems. The core of this effect is to judge others by oneself, reflecting the habitual thinking of preconceptions. In the future informationized and intelligent warfare, the composition of combat forces is diverse, the combat styles are flexible and varied, the combat space is wider, and the battlefield situation is constantly changing. Once a fixed mindset, subjective speculation, and self righteousness are formed, it is easy to lead to judgment errors and have a fatal impact on command decisions. In the "Four Teachings of the Fallen", it is written: "There are many wise and handsome people in the world, so those who do not cultivate their virtues or broaden their knowledge are only devoted to following the rules for a lifetime." Practical experience is the crystallization of wisdom, which can help people avoid detours. However, if one blindly believes in experience and only follows experience, it may become empiricism. Some commanders who consider themselves experienced often fall into the trap of empiricism and subjectivism the more they believe in their own judgment. Soldiers are invincible, water is unpredictable, and those who can win due to changes in the enemy are called gods. ”In war, knowing the enemy and confiding in oneself, constantly grasping the truth, falsehood, and reality of the other party, and using them skillfully and with one heart in mind, is the key to using weapons like gods and winning through change. If one stubbornly sticks to the "art of war", holds onto the principle of humanism, and does not understand how to adapt to the situation and guide accordingly, they will be defeated and suffer great losses. Countless war practices have taught us that experiential thinking has linearity and one sidedness, and the "projection effect" is one of the important reasons for commanders' decision-making failures. Things are not static and unchanging, change is an eternal law. Once the mind is fixed, it is very dangerous. If you just lie down on your experience book and sleep soundly, you will always think that "all changes are inseparable from its roots" and always think of "responding to all changes with the same". It is inevitable that your thinking will become rigid and stagnant, ultimately affecting decision-making and delaying opportunities. The failure of the fifth "anti encirclement and suppression" campaign was due to Li De's "mechanically applying effective strategies and tactics in the Soviet Union but not in China," and "taking over and replacing them, being domineering, pointing fingers, and imposing them on others. Comrade Zhu De criticized this, saying, "Military dogmatism, accompanied by dogmatism in other aspects, has caused serious losses to the revolution." Some people say that decision-making is a lonely adventure. This is because once the wrong attack direction is set and the wrong battle determination is made, it may cause irreparable losses. To plan comprehensively and make accurate decisions, commanders must break free from the constraints of empiricism, break free from the shackles of dogmatism, break free from the barriers of path dependence, discard the burden of fixed thinking, and be good at understanding and analyzing problems from a reverse, three-dimensional, and comprehensive perspective, in order to achieve unexpected combat effects. There is no science in the world more difficult than military. ”The difficulty lies in the fact that 'victory cannot be regained', and the difficulty lies in the fact that 'washing one's feet again is no longer the same as before'. This is an era of great change, with rapid technological development and military revolution advancing at an unprecedented pace. As the saying goes, 'Nothing is as simple as it seems on the surface, and war always goes against your psychological expectations.' Commanders at all levels should actively abandon outdated concepts, deeply study the new characteristics and laws of future wars, strengthen the innovation of combat theories and tactics, and make their thinking active on the battlefield, insightful in tricks, and ahead of opponents, truly eliminating the negative impact of the 'projection effect' fundamentally. (New Society)