At present, the Chinese economy is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, and short-term fluctuations will not change the long-term positive fundamentals. The fourth quarter is not only the final sprint stage of the year's economy, but also an important window period for policy implementation. The reporter interviewed multiple industry insiders to deeply analyze the macroeconomic trend in the fourth quarter and accurately explore the policy focus. From the latest data, in the first eight months, fixed assets investment fell to 0.5% year on year, including infrastructure investment (excluding power), which fell to 2.0% year on year, month on month for four consecutive months; In August, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of residential properties in various tier cities decreased month on month; In August, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the national producer price index decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies will adhere to the overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", with a focus on enhancing policy efficiency and market expectations through coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies. In terms of fiscal policy, Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Institute of Finance and Information Technology, said that due to the high base and other factors, the possibility of "timely reinforcement" of the policy in the fourth quarter could not be ruled out, but the probability of budget adjustment and additional issuance of treasury bond within the year was not high, and it was expected that more reliance would be placed on the use of quasi financial instruments and stock bond funds. We need to continue to increase investment in the direction and accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds for land storage and infrastructure. Lian Ping, president and chief economist of Guangkai Chief Industrial Research Institute, believes that in order to promote steady economic growth and ensure the achievement of the expected goals set at the beginning of the year, it is necessary to improve and issue the list of "dual" construction and investment projects within the central budget as soon as possible in the fourth quarter, accelerate the issuance and funding of local special bonds, general treasury bond, ultra long term special treasury bond, and form the actual policy effect of expanding domestic demand as soon as possible. In terms of monetary policy, Wu Chaoming expects to maintain continuity and stability, keeping the loose tone and ample liquidity unchanged; However, faced with constraints such as pressure from bank interest rate differentials, declining returns on household deposits, and ineffective policy effects, coupled with improved economic cycles and rising prices, the probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter is relatively low, or more reliance may be placed on structural tools. Lian Ping stated that monetary policy will continue to release positive signals, improve market expectations, cooperate with fiscal policy, increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, and if necessary, cut reserve requirement ratios by 0.5 percentage points or interest rates by 0.2 percentage points in the fourth quarter; Reduce the operational threshold of two monetary policy tools that support the capital market, and standardize the operation of the Central Huijin Company's quasi leveling fund. On the demand side, Lian Ping suggests that firstly, further moderate reduction of mortgage interest rates and optimization of personal housing financial and tax preferential policies; While promoting the implementation of the "whitelist" quota, commercial banks are encouraged to increase their investment in real estate development loans. Secondly, an additional 100 billion yuan of consumer goods trade in quota should be added to further expand the scope of subsidies; Accelerate the promotion of service consumption and pension refinancing, reduce refinancing interest rates, and enhance credit support for service consumption; Reforming relevant tax systems to enhance the consumption willingness of middle and high net worth groups. In addition, we will strengthen fiscal and financial support, optimize tax refund services, improve trade facilitation, support the development of new forms of foreign trade, and increase relief and assistance for enterprises and unemployed individuals in export-oriented industries. (New Society)