The fourth quarter is the final season of the year's economic work sprint and a crucial period for planning the next year's development. Recently, a package of macro policies has been continuously implemented from the central to local levels, and their effectiveness has been continuously demonstrated. The interviewed experts believe that achieving stable economic operation throughout the year is expected to require a total investment of around 15 trillion yuan and a total consumption of 13 trillion to 14 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter. Incremental policies may be introduced in areas such as stable investment, stable consumption, and stable foreign trade, and the implementation of existing policies will be strengthened, combined with fiscal, monetary, and industry policies to strike a combination punch. The support policies for bulk consumption may be further intensified to promote the transformation and upgrading of consumption structure, and a package of measures to boost consumption will continue to be implemented. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, issued the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra long-term special treasury bond to support consumer goods trade in funds to local governments this year. So far, 300 billion yuan of central funds have been issued for the whole year. In the first eight months of this year, a total of 330 million people across the country applied for subsidies for exchanging old for new consumer goods, driving sales of related products to exceed 2 trillion yuan. The support policies for bulk consumption will continue to be promoted in the fourth quarter, and may be further intensified. ”Zhang Jun, Chief Economist of China Galaxy Securities, stated in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange that the policy of exchanging old cars for new ones will continue to expand the scope of subsidies and simplify the application process. The linkage between home appliances and home decoration consumption, as well as the continuous promotion of renovation of old residential areas. In terms of creating new consumption highlights, policies may provide support in areas such as health, healthcare, cultural tourism, and digital, such as issuing consumption vouchers. Actively promote holiday economy, nighttime economy, etc. Some innovative service consumption policies are expected to be implemented in the fourth quarter. The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments recently issued the "Several Policy Measures on Expanding Service Consumption". Shanghai and other places have stated that they will accelerate the development of action plans to cultivate and create new growth points for service consumption. The issuance of childcare subsidies, the rebound of the stock market, and other factors may provide support for the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in society. The 'Golden September and Silver October' will also play a role. It is expected that the total retail sales of consumer goods in society will exceed 50 trillion yuan for the whole year, and the contribution rate of consumption to GDP will exceed 50%. ”Hong Tao, Vice Chairman of the China Society of Consumer Economics and Director of the Institute of Business Economics at Beijing Technology and Business University, told Shanghai Securities News reporters. New policy based financial instruments are expected to leverage investment and sprint towards the fourth quarter. Recently, many places have held promotion and mobilization meetings to deploy major project construction work. On September 30th, Anhui held the mobilization meeting for the fourth batch of major projects in the province in 2025. 587 major projects were launched with a total investment of 332.38 billion yuan; On October 9th, Hubei Province held a major project construction promotion meeting for the fourth quarter of 2025, requiring full enthusiasm and pressure to strive for the fourth quarter and win the "14th Five Year Plan". This will continue to ignite a trend of focusing on major projects throughout the province. The construction of major projects cannot do without sufficient financial support. Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and spokesperson for the Commission, recently stated that the total scale of new policy financial instruments is 500 billion yuan, all of which will be used to supplement project capital. Lu Zhe, Chief Economist of Dongwu Securities, predicts that the new policy financial instruments will mainly be used as project capital for projects that are about to start or have already started but are not yet completed, in order to achieve an increase in physical workload as soon as possible. Based on past experience, policy financial instruments will have a certain leverage effect on infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter. It is reported that the first batch of funds for the Taicang tap water expansion project in Jiangsu and the Bailong nuclear power project in Guangxi have been landed. From the publicly available information in various regions, the new policy oriented financial instruments place greater emphasis on supporting new quality productivity and technological transformation and upgrading. Zhang Jun believes that there is an expected remaining 680 billion yuan of local government special bond funds in the fourth quarter, and the policy level will urge the already issued bond funds to form physical work as soon as possible. The use of the 2026 local government special bond quota may be advanced in the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, policy documents to further promote the development of private investment are expected to be released in the near future. Hong Tao believes that policies will be introduced to broaden the access of private capital, improve the mechanism for participating in major national projects, and focus on encouraging investment in new quality productivity, emerging service industries, and other fields. Zhang Jun also stated that he will relax market access, stimulate the vitality of private capital, and provide innovative policy support in areas such as telecommunications, energy, and healthcare. The favorable policies for stabilizing foreign trade will be concentrated in the fourth quarter, and China will continue to take substantial steps in high-level opening up to the outside world. The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port has entered the countdown. According to the arrangement, Hainan Free Trade Port will officially close and operate on December 18, 2025. The Tourism Regulations of Hainan Free Trade Port will come into effect on December 1, 2025, proposing to gradually relax or cancel restrictions on foreign investment in the tourism industry in terms of admission qualifications, investment proportion, and business scope. The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) will be held in three phases from October 15th to November 4th in Guangzhou. In order to continue supporting the development of foreign trade enterprises and better cope with external risks and challenges, the Canton Fair will continue to introduce greater measures to benefit enterprises. Wang Zhihua, Director General of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, introduced that this year's Canton Fair has new highlights and new manifestations in helping foreign trade develop towards novelty, intelligence, and greenness. In terms of the continuous expansion of foreign investment access, the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" released earlier this year proposes a series of measures to stabilize foreign investment and requires that all measures be implemented and effective within 2025. This includes expanding the scope of industries that encourage foreign investment and revising and expanding the catalog of industries that encourage foreign investment. It is reported that the 2025 version of the new catalog will focus on adding advanced manufacturing, modern service industry, high-tech, energy conservation and environmental protection fields, while also encouraging more foreign investment in the central and western regions and the northeast region. A series of policy benefits will be released in the fourth quarter. During an interview with Shanghai Securities News, Lian Ping, the director of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, suggested strengthening fiscal and financial support, optimizing tax refund services, improving trade facilitation, supporting the development of new foreign trade formats, and increasing relief and assistance for enterprises and unemployed individuals in export-oriented industries. Support the development of new forms of foreign trade, promote the construction of comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce, promote mature experience, expand policy coverage, and promote the standardized development of cross-border e-commerce. Qin Tai, Deputy Director and Chief Macro Analyst of Huafu Securities Research Institute, stated in an interview with Shanghai Securities News that the trend of monthly observation of exports still needs to be maintained. It is still necessary for the central government to further strengthen subsidies for durable goods consumption to cope with the downward pressure on exports. (New Society)