The National Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025 on the 15th. In September, the overall operation of the consumer market remained stable, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% in CPI, which narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, stated that the year-on-year improvement in CPI in September was mainly due to the continued effect of consumer policies, which led to the expansion of year-on-year increases in home appliance and mobile phone prices. At the same time, the recent significant rise in international gold prices also had a certain driving effect. In September, the prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.8%, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion in growth. In industrial consumer goods, the prices of gold jewelry and platinum jewelry increased by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, while the prices of household appliances, household daily necessities, and communication tools increased by 5.5%, 3.2%, and 1.5% respectively, with the growth rates expanding. The service price increased by 0.6%, with a relatively stable growth rate. Among them, the prices of medical services and home services increased by 1.9% and 1.6% respectively. In addition, the base factor has dragged down the year-on-year increase in CPI in September. The year-on-year decrease in CPI in September was mainly due to the tail end effect. ”Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that in the 0.3% year-on-year change in CPI in September, the tail effect was about -0.8 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year is about 0.5 percentage points. It is worth noting that after deducting the volatile food and energy prices and the core CPI that better reflects the basic price level, it rose to 1.0% year-on-year in September. This is the fifth consecutive month that the core CPI growth rate has expanded, and it is the first time in nearly 19 months that it has returned to 1%. Overall, the current price index is moderately recovering, and domestic demand is steadily recovering. ”Wang Yunjin, Chief Financial Researcher at Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, said. The moderate rebound in prices also provides ample space for the continued strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies to promote consumption and effectively hedge against external fluctuations in the fourth quarter. Analysts say that in the future, with a significant decline in the price base compared to the same period last year, coupled with further efforts to stabilize growth policies including trade in, CPI is expected to return to positive year-on-year. We expect that the CPI in October is expected to rise to around 0.1% year-on-year, driven by the sinking of the base in the same period last year and the emergence of the effect of consumer promotion policies. ”Feng Lin said that it is expected to rise to the range of 0.5% to 1.0% before the end of the year. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated that in 2025, CPI will show a low and moderate upward trend. The core CPI continues to rise, and with the effective implementation of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, the market supply and demand relationship is gradually improving. The prices of consumer goods and services are steadily increasing, and it is expected to rise by 0.1% year-on-year for the whole year. (New Society)