Looking at China's economy from the third quarter report: new consumption potential erupts
2025-11-17
The third quarter reports of listed companies are like a mirror, reflecting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese consumer market. Currently, the consumer market of listed companies is undergoing a period of structural adjustment, with both challenges and opportunities coexisting. Overall Steady Recovery: Based on the analysis of the overall situation in the third quarter report, the consumer sector has shown a steady recovery, but some sectors have experienced uneven heating and cooling. Must choose stable consumption, optional consumption differentiation. The essential consumer sectors such as food and beverage, daily necessities, etc. have become the "ballast stone" of the market with their essential needs, and their performance has been stable and firm. Many leading enterprises rely on their deep brand accumulation and strong channel control to achieve stable growth in revenue and profit, and maintain a healthy cash flow situation, demonstrating their defensive advantages. The optional consumption presents a pattern of "dual heaven of ice and fire". As the representative of traditional high-end consumption, the Baijiu industry continued to be under pressure in the third quarter, and the shrinking consumption scenario led to the market entering a shrinking competition mode. Among the listed Baijiu enterprises that have released the third quarter report, only a few have achieved micro growth. According to the third quarter report of Wuliangye, the company's revenue for the third quarter of this year was 8.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.019 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.62%. Luzhou Laojiao achieved a revenue of 6.674 billion yuan in the third quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.07%. In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry chain, with the dual support of policy dividends and product upgrades, has become the most eye-catching growth engine in the consumer sector, with both sales and performance increasing. The optional consumer sectors such as home appliances and home furnishings are under significant pressure due to their deep integration with the real estate market. However, the emerging categories of green, intelligent, and integrated products are growing against the trend, continuously releasing strong momentum for consumer upgrading. Deepening channel transformation and accelerating integration of online and offline channels. Traditional retail enterprises are no longer sticking to the offline "one acre, three thirds of land", and the pace of online transformation has significantly accelerated. The omnichannel layout of online drainage and offline experience has become a standard in the industry. Enterprises that actively embrace change and have outstanding digital capabilities have successfully captured the dividends of channel transformation and achieved counter trend growth. Global commodity prices are fluctuating at high levels, and cost pressures such as raw materials and logistics still exist, continuously testing the gross profit margins of mid to downstream consumer enterprises. According to the third quarter report data, companies that can hedge cost pressures through optimizing product structure, refined management, and improving supply chain efficiency demonstrate stronger profitability resilience and market competitiveness. On the basis of overall recovery, a number of structural highlights are breaking through industry bottlenecks and becoming new engines driving high-quality development of consumer listed companies. Innovation in technology, formats, and scenarios is reconstructing the growth logic of the consumer market. Empowered by technology, unlocking new possibilities for consumption. In the field of smart homes, Ecovacs' home service robot business maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 131% in net profit in the first three quarters; Haier Smart Home users co created and launched multiple popular ice wash products, leading to rapid expansion of the air conditioning and kitchen appliance industry, with a year-on-year increase of 15% in net profit. In the field of smart wearables, Huaqin Technology continues to consolidate its global advantage in intelligent terminal manufacturing, achieving over 50% growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters. In the field of intelligent transportation, the sales of new energy vehicles by five passenger car companies in the third quarter all increased by more than 10% month on month, and SAIC Group's new energy vehicle sales in September reached a historic high; Company 9 has built differentiated barriers with high-performance intelligent short transportation products, and the increase in the proportion of electric motorcycle sales has driven a year-on-year increase of 84% in net profit for the first three quarters. Innovative business models bring new opportunities to traditional consumption. The basic consumer industry actively explores diversified new formats and excavates "gold mines" in the traditional track. Kuaiji Mountain, which is deeply involved in the food and beverage industry, has tapped into new demands for multi-level consumption. Through the dual wheel drive of high-end and youthfulness, the sales revenue of mid to high end yellow wine in the first three quarters increased by 20% year-on-year. Mercury Home Textile is exploring a new and upgraded approach in the field of home decoration and home furnishings. Through the use of ergonomic pillows and other large products, it is driving the ecological extension of its products, and achieving double-digit growth in revenue and net profit through the "online drainage+offline experience" model. Sankeshu's "live now" plus China-Chic series of art paint products accelerated the high-end transformation of retail, and the net profit in the first three quarters increased by 81% year on year. The recovery of cultural tourism injects new vitality into performance. The concentrated release of summer cultural and tourism consumption demand has greatly boosted the performance of consumer listed companies in the third quarter of this year. Summer parent-child travel and inbound and outbound travel have driven the growth of demand in the aviation and tourism market. The revenue of airports in the third quarter increased by 21% month on month, and the revenue of tourism hotels in the third quarter increased by 10% month on month. The structural highlights of the consumer market bring rich opportunities to the capital market. ”Chen Li, director of Chuancai Securities Research Institute, said that high-quality consumer goods listed companies often make precise efforts in four aspects: first, accurately matching market demand, promoting product innovation and service upgrading by region and consumption level; The second is to innovate business scenarios, integrate culture and technology to create experiential consumption; Thirdly, deepen digital transformation and empower marketing, supply chain, and customer service with technology; The fourth is to leverage policy dividends and participate in consumer promotion activities to expand channels. Facing market changes, a group of listed companies have proactively transformed and seized new consumer trends in the face of challenges, outlining a new direction for the consumer market. Taking the food industry as an example, in the third quarter of this year, listed companies such as Jinlongyu and Miaokelanda achieved impressive performance, with significant year-on-year growth in net profit. Their core benefits were cost improvement and channel optimization. Among them, the sub sectors such as healthy grain and oil, cheese, and braised snacks have shown outstanding performance. Enterprises have built a solid growth foundation by laying out new consumption scenarios, expanding snack sales and membership store channels. Today's consumption growth relies more on deep exploration of user value, namely the 'human heart dividend'. Consumers are no longer satisfied with basic functions, but rather pursue product personalization, emotional value, health attributes, and social experience. For example, the emerging consumption represented by meeting the spiritual needs of consumers, such as Chaoplay, pet economy, cultural and creative China-Chic, is booming. The consumer market is becoming increasingly refined and segmented. The consumer market is splitting into countless refined vertical tracks. Whether it's new-style tea drinks, premium coffee, camping equipment, or pet economy and silver economy, numerous new brands have emerged that focus on specific groups and scenarios. The rise of domestic products is unstoppable. By leveraging cultural confidence, supply chain advantages, and a keen grasp of new consumer trends, domestic brands are entering a golden period of development. In the third quarter report, domestic brands in multiple fields have shown excellent performance in revenue growth and market share, especially in sports apparel, beauty and skincare, digital electronic products and other fields. Domestic brands have become an important force in the market and have formed a competitive situation with international brands. Our consumer market is currently in a stage of structural upgrading. ”Tian Xuan, Dean of the National Institute of Finance at Tsinghua University, stated that the current uneven recovery of consumption is due to multiple factors such as unstable income expectations and differences in consumer confidence, structural differences between emerging and traditional consumption, and uneven regional recovery. With the intensification of industry valuation differentiation, competition in high-quality tracks is becoming increasingly fierce, and funds are more inclined to flow towards companies with strong resistance to differentiation. Top enterprises with advantages in sinking market channels, strong brand barriers, or unique scene advantages are more favored by capital. Chen Li believes that in the long run, there is significant room for growth in the sinking market and service consumption. Coupled with policy support and technological empowerment, enterprises with differentiated competitiveness will continue to lead, and the resilience of the consumer market is expected to be further strengthened. Experts believe that the consumption field is no longer limited to the track game between traditional consumption and emerging consumption, but is deeply engaged in the competition of operational efficiency and strategic vision among different enterprises within the same industry. Traditional consumption is not completely cold, but facing the deepening of supply side structural reform. Enterprises that actively embrace new trends and promote product iteration can still win growth space in segmented markets. At the same time, the growth of emerging consumption presents a dual feature of technology driven and experience oriented, with a greater emphasis on providing emotional value compared to traditional consumption. More intelligent human-computer interaction systems directly drive the demand for replacement on the consumer end, while innovative experiential scenarios such as immersive retail spaces and themed cultural tourism projects continue to attract the attention of young consumer groups, further enhancing consumer stickiness and conversion efficiency. From a deeper perspective, the current trend of recovery in China's consumer market has shifted from overall recovery to structural optimization. ”Tian Xuan stated that listed companies need to break away from the path dependence on large-scale growth and shift towards high-quality development, building core competitiveness in segmented markets through technological innovation, model innovation, and management innovation. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:Economic Daily
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