Economy

The 'dual' projects continue to strengthen, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to increase

2025-11-19   

On November 18th, the construction of the Fangxian section of the Fangxian to Wufeng Expressway in Hubei Province began; On November 17th, the construction of Shangqiu Airport in Henan Province began... Recently, multiple "dual" construction projects have started one after another. 'Dual' refers to the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of security capabilities in key areas. The recently held executive meeting of the State Council proposed to plan and promote the "dual" construction within the overall framework of the 15th Five Year Plan, firmly grasp the strategic, forward-looking, and global requirements, strengthen departmental coordination, pay attention to the combination of software and hardware, and promote the in-depth implementation of major national strategies and the steady improvement of security capabilities in key areas. Experts say that as an important lever for expanding effective investment and cultivating new quality productive forces, the "dual" construction will be an important focus of stable growth policies. Driven by the construction of related projects, infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate. The "Dual" project accelerates the construction of the Fangxian to Wufeng Expressway Fangxian section, with a total length of about 31.6 kilometers and a construction period of 4.5 years. It is constructed using the technical standards of a two-way four lane expressway with a design speed of 80 kilometers per hour. After the project is opened to traffic, the efficiency of transportation will be greatly improved. The travel time from Shiyan to Shennongjia will be 1.5 hours, and the travel time from Shiyan to Yichang will save about 100 kilometers. In addition to the Fangxian section of the Fangxian to Wufeng Expressway project, multiple "dual" construction projects began construction in the fourth quarter. On October 22, the construction of the first-class highway (pilot section) from Jiangguohe to Diebu on the G248 line of the new Gansu Sichuan corridor was started, which is of great significance for opening up the sections to be connected to the national road network, building a dual channel pattern in Gansu and Sichuan, and accelerating the construction of the golden tourism corridor in Gansu and Sichuan. On November 17th, the Shangqiu Airport with a total investment of about 800 million yuan officially started construction. After completion, it will further strengthen Shangqiu's important position as a node in the national comprehensive transportation network and better integrate into the construction of serving the unified national market. In 2025, a total of 800 billion yuan will be allocated to support 1459 projects in the "dual" construction, involving key areas such as ecological restoration of the Yangtze River Basin, major transportation infrastructure along the Yangtze River, western land sea new channels, high standard farmland, major water conservancy projects, and urban underground pipeline networks. The National Development and Reform Commission previously stated that the list of 800 billion yuan "dual" construction projects for this year has been fully issued. 2026 is the starting year of the 15th Five Year Plan. China Securities Journal reporters have found that many regions are actively promoting project application work by seizing policy dividends, showing a trend of high enthusiasm for application and focusing on policy oriented and precise reserve projects. On November 12th, the Development and Reform Commission of Yangzhou City held a meeting to promote the reserve of "dual" construction projects in 2026, proposing to focus on major infrastructure, livelihood projects, and key industrial projects, closely follow the "dual" policy orientation, promote mature projects to be put into storage as soon as possible, update them dynamically in a timely manner, and strengthen supporting measures for soft construction. The notice issued by Beijing in September regarding the solicitation of key projects for 2026 clearly states that major project reserves should be prepared, and project applications should focus on scientific and technological innovation and modernization industry projects, strategic emerging industry projects such as artificial intelligence, medicine and health, intelligent connected vehicles, aerospace technology, integrated circuits, intelligent equipment and systems, as well as future industry projects such as humanoid robots and 6G. Establishing a precise matching mechanism between funds and projects is one of the key focuses of stable growth policies, and the importance of the "dual" construction is further highlighted. Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Orient Jincheng, said in an interview with China Securities News that the "dual" construction mentioned again at the executive meeting of the State Council means that it will continue to advance during the "15th Five Year Plan" period, and the issuance scale of ultra long term special treasury bond bonds that provide financial support for it is likely to gradually expand. In the next five years, the "dual" construction will serve as an important lever for expanding effective investment and cultivating new quality productive forces, as well as an important focus of proactive fiscal policies. Liu Xiangdong, Deputy Director of the Research and Information Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, stated that the State Council executive meeting emphasized the "dual" construction, with the aim of increasing support for the "dual" construction in the long term, promoting high-quality economic development while boosting economic growth. On the one hand, the 'dual' construction project is in line with the long-term development direction of the country, and will have a strategic, forward-looking, and global important position in the '15th Five Year Plan'. It is necessary to coordinate 'hard investment' and 'soft construction', strengthen departmental coordination, and aim to improve the effectiveness of 'dual' construction investment, take into account national coordinated development, and avoid redundant construction. On the other hand, emphasizing the 'dual' construction is a key measure to proactively respond to international environmental changes and enhance security capabilities in areas such as food, energy, and industry, aiming to enhance the ability to resist external risks. ”Liu Xiangdong said. Wang Qing said that the "dual" construction in the future should not only make good use of ultra long term special treasury bond funds, but also optimize the investment and financing mechanism to attract more private funds. This is an important aspect of giving play to the role of government investment in leveraging, and also a concrete manifestation of broadening the field of private investment and optimizing the business environment. To promote the 'dual' construction, we need to grasp three key dimensions. ”Pang Ming, a specially appointed senior researcher at the National Finance and Development Laboratory, analyzed that in order to achieve dynamic optimization in resource allocation, it is not only necessary to ensure sufficient supply of funds, but also to establish a precise matching mechanism between funds and projects. In the implementation path, attention should be paid to system integration, and major project construction must be promoted synchronously with institutional innovation and capacity building. The investment in "hardware" such as infrastructure needs to be supported by corresponding management mechanisms and "software" such as talent cultivation, forming a mutually reinforcing virtuous cycle. In terms of governance mechanisms, it is necessary to strengthen collaborative efficiency, break down departmental barriers, establish cross disciplinary and cross level coordination mechanisms, and ensure the synergy of various projects throughout the planning, construction, and operation cycles. Several experts have stated that with the continuous release of the "dual" construction effect and the gradually emerging role of new policy financial instruments in driving infrastructure investment growth, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, stated that from the perspective of funding sources, the 500 billion yuan new policy financial instrument funds have been fully invested by the end of October. In addition, 200 billion yuan of special bond quotas have been allocated from the newly activated 500 billion yuan local bond balance limit to support investment and construction in some provinces. With the arrival of project capital, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to marginally rebound. Wang Qing stated that the growth rate of infrastructure investment may increase before the end of the year, and the macroeconomic "stabilizer" role of infrastructure investment will be further highlighted. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, driven by the "dual" construction, infrastructure investment will maintain a moderate growth rate. While filling gaps, strengthening foundations, and continuously promoting economic transformation and upgrading, it will effectively play a countercyclical regulatory role. Li Chao, chief economist of Zhejiang Merchants Securities, predicted that in the future, the investment confidence of micro entities is expected to gradually repair, and the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to stabilize under the influence of factors such as the landing and use of funds for new policy financial instruments and special bond lines dedicated to supporting investment and construction in some provinces. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that China's investment potential and space are still enormous, and an objective and comprehensive understanding is needed for changes in investment growth rate. In the next stage, we need to anchor the goal of high-quality development, continue to optimize the investment structure, continuously improve the investment environment, further stimulate the vitality of private investment, promote the healthy development of investment, and better play the key role of investment in expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and benefiting people's livelihoods. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:China Securities Journal

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