Multiple indicators remain stable with some increase in December 2025. High frequency data reflects market vitality
2026-01-09
According to the latest high-frequency data obtained by the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's consumer market will steadily grow in December 2025, and the effects of various investment stabilization policies will continue to emerge. The export of high-value products will continue to accelerate. By the end of December 2025, major landmark commercial districts will be adorned with festive decorations, creating a festive atmosphere for the New Year. In order to welcome the New Year holiday, many places have issued consumption vouchers and launched promotional activities such as delayed business and discounts in shopping malls. Shopping malls, restaurants, cinemas and other places have ushered in a holiday consumption boom ahead of schedule. High frequency data shows that China's consumer market will experience stable growth in December 2025. According to offline consumption big data, the consumption amount in December increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with commodity consumption and service consumption increasing by 1.3% and 0.4% respectively; During the New Year period, the enthusiasm for holiday consumption was further released. From January 1st to 3rd this year, the consumption amount increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with commodity consumption and service consumption increasing by 9.3% and 1.1% respectively. Payment amount data can more directly reflect consumer vitality. Overall, as China continues to increase its policies to promote consumption and expand domestic demand, the consumption sector is showing a steady and positive development trend, and market vitality is constantly being stimulated. ”Xing Yuguan, Deputy Director of the Comprehensive Department of the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, said. In terms of infrastructure projects, with the precise implementation of measures such as the introduction of new policy financial instruments in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the addition of special bond quotas from the local debt balance limit, various projects have been steadily implemented, and policy effects continue to emerge. In December, the winning bid amount of projects nationwide increased by 28% compared to the previous month. From the perspective of project commencement, compared to November, the operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants and cement mills have both turned from negative to positive year-on-year. At the same time, policies are stabilizing investment with greater efforts. At a press conference held at the end of December 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission revealed that it has issued a list of "dual" construction projects approved in advance for 2026 and a central budget investment plan, totaling approximately 295 billion yuan. Recently, multiple major infrastructure projects have been approved or approved, including Guangzhou New Airport, Liaodong Peninsula Water Resources Allocation Project in Liaoning Province, and Zhejiang Ultra High Voltage AC Ring Network Project, with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. In terms of external demand, starting from February 2025, China's import and export of goods have maintained growth for 10 consecutive months. Multiple high-frequency data also show that China's foreign trade resilience and vitality continue to be demonstrated. The Export Container Freight Index is a barometer that reflects the export situation of foreign trade. In December 2025, the export container freight rate index of China to Southeast Asia, South Korea, Europe and other routes increased by 17.8%, 5.2%, and 4.6% respectively compared to the previous month, and the diversification pattern of foreign trade continued to deepen. In December, the daily average number of international cargo flights increased by 13.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from November, indicating that the export of high-value products continues to accelerate. The rapid increase in freight rates from China to Southeast Asia is a positive signal for the deepening integration of China's industry chain with ASEAN and the enhancement of regional economic and trade vitality. With the China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version as the driving force, the cooperation between China and the ASEAN region's industry chain and supply chain is becoming increasingly close, providing important assistance for promoting the diversification of China's foreign trade and reshaping the global industrial chain pattern. ”Xing Yuguan said. Lian Ping, President and Chief Economist of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, stated that currently, China's export structure continues to upgrade, with electromechanical and high-tech products accounting for over 60%, and significant achievements in expanding into emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America. It is expected that exports will continue to be a stabilizer of external demand in 2026. In addition, the innovation vitality of enterprises maintains a positive trend. High frequency data shows that in December 2025, the operating vitality index of start-up enterprises and the operating vitality index of technology innovation enterprises increased by 17.9% and 20.4% respectively year-on-year. (New Society)
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:Economic Information Daily
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