The global aviation industry demonstrates strong resilience
2026-01-28
Singapore Changi International Airport, known as the 'Forest Garden Airport', will reach a historic peak in 2025 with a passenger throughput of nearly 70 million people throughout the year. The terminal is brightly lit and crowded, and has been operating at high density for a long time. The busy scene at Singapore Changi International Airport is a microcosm of the sustained release of global air travel demand last year. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently released a report indicating that global air passenger transport is demonstrating stronger stability and adaptability. International Air Transport Association Chairman Willie Walsh pointed out that the performance of the aviation industry is commendable amidst multiple headwinds such as supply chain bottlenecks, geopolitical conflicts, and weak global trade. "Airlines have successfully established strong resilience to cope with shocks and achieved stable profits. It is expected that global air transportation demand will continue to grow in 2026, and the industry's profitability is expected to remain in a relatively sustainable range. The latest report from the International Air Transport Association shows that the global aviation industry's passenger transport volume is estimated to reach 4.98 billion by 2025, and is expected to reach 5.2 billion by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% and a historic high; The total revenue of the global aviation industry is expected to reach $1.053 trillion in 2026, an increase of 4.5% from $1.008 trillion in 2025; The net profit is expected to reach $41 billion in 2026, higher than the $39.5 billion in 2025. From a regional perspective, the Asia Pacific region remains an important engine for global aviation demand growth. It is estimated that the net profit of the aviation industry in the Asia Pacific region will be about 6.2 billion US dollars in 2025, and it is expected to reach 6.6 billion US dollars by 2026. According to the air travel data analysis platform OAG, among the 10 busiest routes in the world in December 2025, 7 Asian routes made it onto the list. In 2026, passenger demand in the Asia Pacific region is expected to grow by 7.3%, significantly higher than the global average growth level. The Asia Pacific region will continue to lead the growth of the aviation industry, mainly due to the sustained recovery of tourism activities within the region, the expansion of the middle-income group, and the long-term release of air travel demand. China's policies such as simplifying the entry procedures for foreign tourists will further stimulate the demand for aviation in the region. The International Air Transport Association predicts that the average passenger load factor in the Asia Pacific region will reach 84.4% in 2026, a historic high. The European aviation industry continues to maintain robust financial performance with the expansion of low-cost airlines and support from the internal leisure market. Taking Hungary as an example, the capital Budapest Liszt International Airport has just passed its busiest year, with a total passenger throughput of 19 million, setting a new historical high. Hungary has announced a systematic upgrade of its second largest airport in the east, Debrecen International Airport, with plans to expand runways, terminals, and logistics facilities to alleviate passenger pressure in the capital, attract more international flights, and strengthen regional hub functions. At the same time, the Middle East region continues to maintain high profit margins in the aviation industry by relying on hub strategies and continuous investment in infrastructure. Driven by the improvement of regional connectivity and the accelerated economic recovery of some countries, the growth momentum of air passenger volume in Latin America is strong. The North American region is facing challenges such as domestic market saturation, uncertainty in tariff policies, and tightening immigration policies, which limit the expansion space of the aviation industry. Against the backdrop of rising protectionism and global supply chain restructuring, global air cargo has demonstrated strong resilience, outperforming trade growth. The latest data from the International Air Transport Association shows that since 2025, the growth rate of global aviation trade has significantly outperformed the overall growth rate of global trade. Especially from January to August 2025, the global aviation trade volume increased by 25% year-on-year, with a staggering 43% year-on-year increase in March. It is expected that the air cargo volume will reach 71.6 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. Industry analysis shows that China's export growth to Europe, Asia, and other emerging markets effectively offsets the decline in exports to the United States. Asia, Middle East to Europe, and Europe to Asia routes have all achieved strong double-digit growth, "said Willie Walsh. FedEx stated in its "Air Cargo Outlook 2026" that the Asia Europe and intra Asia Pacific routes have become the most active corridors for global air cargo growth. At present, the Asia Pacific region accounts for about 40% of the global air cargo volume, significantly higher than North America and Europe, and is gradually becoming a key hub in the global trade network. Global air cargo companies are continuously adjusting their network layout, actively adapting to the rebalancing of trade patterns through the addition and encryption of routes. The International Air Transport Association predicts that the global cargo trade growth rate will slow down to around 0.5% for the whole year of 2026, but air cargo demand is expected to increase by 2.6% year-on-year. On the one hand, the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce has become one of the most certain driving forces for global air transport growth in the past two years. FedEx industry observers believe that the focus of air freight is no longer limited to terminal packages, but more reflected in bulk replenishment and inventory allocation between e-commerce platforms and brand merchants. To meet the consumption expectation of "3-7 day delivery" for international orders, an efficient air freight supply chain has become the infrastructure to ensure sufficient inventory and fulfillment capabilities. On the other hand, investment in artificial intelligence continues to grow, driving the cross-border flow of high-value goods such as semiconductors, servers, and communication equipment. This type of cargo requires extremely high safety, timeliness, and professional operational capabilities. In terms of comprehensive efficiency and risk control, air transportation has higher adaptability. Strengthening the response to structural challenges while embracing more development opportunities, the global aviation industry also faces some structural challenges. The global aviation industry has committed to achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, and the use of sustainable aviation fuels is one of the important measures for the current civil aviation transportation industry to address climate change and reduce carbon emissions. The International Air Transport Association predicts that by the end of 2026, the proportion of sustainable aviation fuel in aviation fuel consumption will still be less than 1%, reflecting insufficient policy incentives and immature market mechanisms, and the decarbonization process of the aviation industry will still face practical constraints. Chinese enterprises actively contribute to sustainable development. COMAC stated that both C909 and C919 aircraft have completed flight tests with a maximum sustainable aviation fuel blending ratio of 50%; The promotion of sustainable aviation fuel application has completed two stages of pilot projects and achieved regular refueling of flights at four airports. At present, there are 5 sustainable aviation fuel refineries in China that have completed airworthiness certification, with a total annual production capacity exceeding 1 million tons. The unit cost of sustainable aviation fuel has decreased from about 30000 yuan/ton in 2022 to less than 20000 yuan/ton. In the coming years, supply chain bottlenecks will continue to limit the expansion of air transportation capacity. Even though aircraft delivery is expected to improve in 2026, the growth rate of new orders is still higher than production capacity. The International Air Transport Association estimates that there has been a cumulative shortfall of at least 5300 aircraft deliveries worldwide in the past five years. Currently, the global backlog of aircraft orders has exceeded 17000, equivalent to about 60% of the current fleet size. Based on current production capacity, it will take about 12 years to digest. The average age of the global fleet has risen to over 15 years, which limits the space for airlines to expand capacity, improve service quality, and promote fleet renewal. The Chinese supply chain is becoming an important force in enhancing the resilience of the global aviation industry chain. At present, about 200 Chinese companies are involved in the Airbus civil aircraft supply system, covering the complete chain from upstream materials to system assembly, ensuring that all Airbus models include components made in China. Airbus China CEO Xu Gang said, "Airbus' cooperation with China has evolved from simple aircraft sales to a deeper level of industrial cooperation
Edit:Yi Yi Responsible editor:Li Nian
Source:www.people.cn
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