Think Tank

Continuously improving the resilience of foreign trade

2026-02-06   

Data shows that by 2025, China's total import and export value will reach RMB 45.47 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, setting a new historical high for the same period and maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. Among them, the export volume increased by 6.1%, the import volume increased by 0.5%, and the position of the world's largest trading nation in goods remained stable. Such achievements are hard won. In 2025, facing a complex and severe external environment, China's foreign trade will move forward under pressure, with both quantity and quality improving, and reach new highs on a high base. This fully demonstrates the strong resilience of China's foreign trade in stabilizing the foundation, increasing growth, and resisting risks. In the structure of China's foreign trade, the growth rate of exports is relatively large. China has always supplied the world with many high-quality, affordable, stable and reliable products. Among them, the rapid growth of intermediate goods trade is the main driving force for exports. Intermediate goods are the products that have the closest cooperation with the global industrial and supply chains. Against the backdrop of global industrial and supply chain restructuring, China's intermediate goods trade has developed rapidly, which can fill the supply-demand gap, ensure the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains, promote the continuous deepening and improvement of the global value chain system, and provide strong support for industrial cooperation worldwide. Based on this, while promoting the growth of China's foreign trade, greater efforts must be made to promote balanced development of imports and exports, and better achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. In the foreseeable future, facing more complex power games and unilateralism and protectionism, the international economic and trade order will face more severe challenges, and the uncertainty of global trade will also intensify. This requires China's foreign trade to continue to maintain strategic determination, push forward against pressure, and achieve counter trend growth. Steadily expanding institutional openness. By benchmarking international high standard economic and trade rules, continuously deepening the process of opening up to the outside world, actively leading and participating in the formulation of multilateral rules, better achieving the "soft connectivity" of rules and standards, and improving the level of free and convenient trade in goods. In 2025, despite a significant decline in exports to the United States, China will still achieve overall export growth, thanks to the hedging effect of diversified markets. At the same time, the import and export of countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" and ASEAN, Latin America and African countries grew significantly faster. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to build a diversified open pattern and maintain a stable and balanced market structure to cope with the complex and ever-changing external environment. Continuously cultivate new driving forces for foreign trade. From the perspective of foreign trade structure, the strong export of technology intensive and high value-added products, the continuous improvement of "new content" and "green content" in foreign trade, and the accelerated formation of an innovation driven growth pattern are the main forces driving China's foreign trade growth against the trend. Taking industrial robots as an example, this "pearl" at the top of the manufacturing industry crown has been dominated by foreign brands for a long time in the past, but by 2025, China's exports in this industry will increase significantly and surpass imports for the first time. In addition, the export growth of green products has also maintained a relatively fast growth rate. In the future, we need to further adapt to the trend of digital and green international trade development, increase the intensity of research and development funding, enhance the adaptability and competitiveness of export products, and optimize the trade structure. Consolidate the export advantages of the "new three types" and promote the transformation of high-end equipment manufacturing industry from exporting products to providing overall solutions. Increase financial, credit insurance, and overseas marketing services support for export products such as automobiles and large-scale complete sets of equipment. Promote balanced development of imports and exports. Expanding imports is not only a component of promoting foreign trade growth, but also a key measure to promote balanced development of imports and exports under conditions where export growth is significantly higher than import growth. China has the advantage of a super large market, and we need to actively expand independent and unilateral opening up to further release production and consumption, reduce tariffs on specific countries, and provide broader space for imports. In addition, it is necessary to promote the integration of trade and investment, with a focus on expanding outward direct investment. Stimulate the vitality of business entities. Private enterprises have flexible operating mechanisms, outstanding adaptability, and are better able to adapt to complex and changing external environments. Specialized and innovative enterprises with private enterprises as the main component have strong vitality and competitiveness. In the future, we will focus on enhancing the enthusiasm of such enterprises, providing more policy support for private foreign trade enterprises, and improving the comprehensive overseas service system. Guide enterprises to prudently respond to unreasonable foreign trade restrictions and enhance their compliance capabilities. (New Society)

Edit:Luoyu Responsible editor:Wang Erdong

Source:ECONOMIC DAILY

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