By 2025, China's international balance of payments will be basically balanced, and foreign exchange reserves will remain stable overall
2026-03-30
On March 27th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released the "2025 China International Balance of Payments Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). The report shows that China's foreign exchange market has shown strong resilience and vitality, with market expectations and rational and orderly transactions. The RMB exchange rate has remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. From the overall situation of international balance of payments, in 2025, China's current account surplus and non reserve financial account deficit will increase synchronously, reflecting a closer connection with the world economy and a more open attitude towards integrating into the global economy. The inflow of funds formed by the current account surplus is transformed into outward investment utilization under the financial account, achieving a balance between income and expenditure. The report shows that the current account income and expenditure have steadily increased. In 2025, China's total current account revenue and expenditure will reach 8.3 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3% compared to the previous year; The current account surplus is $735 billion, with a ratio of 3.7% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It can be seen that in 2025, China's international balance of payments will continue the pattern of current account surplus and capital account deficit, and the overall balance performance will be good. Among them, foreign exchange reserves are generally stable. ”Zhao Qingming, Vice President of the Huiguan Research Institute, stated. Zhao Qingming pointed out that the current global financial market volatility is intensifying, especially with the rise of financial risks in the European and American regions. Against this backdrop, the periodic changes in China's foreign exchange reserves are reasonable. From the perspective of major international balance of payments items, the "ballast stone" effect of goods trade continues to emerge, and the scale of service trade is steadily increasing. The report shows that the resilience of goods trade has been enhanced, with the total import and export volume of goods in the international balance of payments caliber increasing by 3% compared to the previous year, and the surplus of goods trade expanding. Trade in services is steadily improving, with the total import and export volume exceeding 1 trillion US dollars, becoming a new engine for the development of foreign trade and narrowing the trade deficit in services. In addition, the overall return on cross-border two-way investment remains stable, and the investment income deficit remains stable. The report points out that during the 15th Five Year Plan period, China will focus on promoting significant breakthroughs in the development of new quality productive forces, continuously enhancing the role of domestic demand as the driving force for economic growth, and further expanding high-level opening up to the outside world. It will support the current account to continue to maintain a reasonable and balanced level in the medium and long term. It is worth noting that in 2025, the deficit of non reserve financial accounts will increase. The inflow of funds formed by the current account surplus is transformed into outward investment utilization under the financial account, achieving a balance between income and expenditure. The report shows that there will be a non reserve financial account deficit of $820.1 billion in 2025. Domestic entities have seen rapid growth in various types of outbound investments, increased internationalization and diversified asset allocation, while also injecting liquidity into the global financial market, supporting the development of trade and investment partner industries and financial stability. In terms of attracting foreign investment, the structure of direct investment in China continues to optimize. According to the report, driven by an increase in reinvestment income, equity based direct investment in China increased by 20%. Foreign investment in China's stock market has shown a net increase. By the end of 2025, China's external financial assets and external financial liabilities will be 11.8 trillion US dollars and 7.7 trillion US dollars respectively, and its external net assets will exceed 4 trillion US dollars, an increase of 28% compared to the end of the previous year. Looking ahead to 2026, with external instability and uncertainties, the international environment remains complex and ever-changing. China will continue to firmly promote high-quality development, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, build a strong domestic market, develop new quality production capacity according to local conditions, further expand high-level opening up to the outside world, form a new situation of win-win cooperation, and maintain basic balance of international payments with conditions. Zhao Qingming believes that the sustained and stable current account surplus intuitively confirms the strong competitiveness of China's goods and commodities in the global market, which is the core of ensuring the basic balance of international payments. Overall, China's international balance of payments will continue to maintain a stable and healthy operating trend in the future, with sufficient resilience and risk resistance. The report states that the foreign exchange management department will better coordinate development and security, focus on building a "more convenient, open, safe, and intelligent" foreign exchange management system and mechanism, strive to create a foreign exchange policy environment that is both "flexible" and "well managed", effectively maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market and the basic balance of international payments, and contribute to the success of the "15th Five Year Plan". (New Society)
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:Economic Information Daily
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