On July 14th, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first half of the year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 25.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. This is also the first time in the history of China's import and export scale to exceed 25 trillion yuan during the same period. Among them, the import and export volume in the second quarter was 13.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, the highest quarterly year-on-year growth rate since the third quarter of 2021. Behind the 'stable' scale, the background of the 'new' driving force is becoming increasingly distinct, with artificial intelligence (AI) becoming the incremental engine of foreign trade, driving China's foreign trade into the fast lane of 'digital intelligence'.
Opening the semi annual foreign trade report, the "contribution value" of AI is clearly visible. In the first half of the year, the import and export of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts in China reached 5.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.6%; More than 10000 intelligent bionic robots deeply integrated with AI technology have been exported, covering over 90 countries and regions worldwide; Intelligent products such as AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons are rapidly iterating, and various innovative products are constantly emerging.
The export of the AI industry chain has moved from a "breakthrough point" to a "comprehensive flowering". Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute at Yuekai Securities, stated that since the beginning of this year, the proportion of AI industry chain exports in total exports has risen to 22%. In terms of incremental contribution, the AI industry chain has contributed about half of the export increment. Not only are core products such as automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits growing rapidly, but supporting products such as data center power supply equipment and liquid cooling systems are also maintaining rapid growth, showing a characteristic of extending from core hardware to supporting equipment and growing together in multiple links, "said Luo Zhiheng.
Looking at the forefront of the industry, the trend of expanding production and going global is unfolding simultaneously in multiple stages.
PCB (printed circuit board) is known as the "mother of electronic products", and the surge in demand for AI computing power has accelerated its expansion. In the first quarter of this year, Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd. launched three major expansion plans, with a cumulative investment of over 10 billion yuan; Pengding Holdings announced an investment of 11 billion yuan to build a high-end PCB project production base in Huai'an. The expansion of production map is synchronously extending overseas, and Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd.'s production base in Thailand is shifting from capacity ramp up to scale operation, accelerating the "China+N" regional restructuring of the global PCB supply chain.
The fiber optic cable industry, as a "neural network" for data transmission, is also facing new opportunities. Zhongtian Technology, located in Nantong, Jiangsu, has seen a tenfold increase in the price of its special fiber optic products within a year, but the supply still exceeds demand. Orders have been scheduled until the end of 2027. Wang Dong, Deputy General Manager of the Communication International Business Unit of the company, said, "Orders have increased fourfold year-on-year, but shipments have only doubled. Customers need to pay a deposit in advance to lock in factory production capacity
In addition to components and materials, complete machines and system level products are also accelerating their overseas expansion. As the AI industry shifts from parameter competitions on the training side to large-scale implementation on the inference side, the demand for out of the box integrated computing power products has surged overseas. Hongxin Electronics has launched AIDC computing power containers to help overseas customers quickly build computing power systems through a "manufacturing+computing power service" model. According to Tang Feng, the head of the company, customized procurement intentions have been reached in Southeast Asian countries, and related export business is expected to be officially launched in the fourth quarter of this year. In the future, the company will also expand its diversified forms of computing power services overseas.
Each link blooms comprehensively, with its own deep logic behind it. This wave of AI going global is driven by the combination of global demand, China's industrial foundation, and the innovation capabilities of enterprises.
From an international market perspective, a United Nations report shows that the growth of global goods trade since the beginning of this year has mainly been concentrated in the field of artificial intelligence. The global demand for computing power, data centers, and terminal equipment continues to expand, promoting the export of related products from China.
From the perspective of industrial foundation, Gao Shiwang, spokesperson for the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electrical Products, pointed out that China has a complete manufacturing and supply system from chips, storage, electricity to data transmission. The export of computing power chain, transmission chain, and power chain all benefit from the demand growth brought by AI investment.
From the perspective of foreign trade entities, the core competitiveness of private enterprises in China lies in independent innovation. In the first half of the year, the export of high-tech products from private enterprises increased by 35.9%, with high-end equipment, new materials, and electronic information products growing by 29.8%, 44.5%, and 43.1% respectively.
The supporting role of AI in foreign trade will be further highlighted. According to Luo Zhiheng's judgment, the driving role of AI is expected to continue to strengthen in the second half of the year, becoming a structural engine for China's exports. He provided a set of data, according to WTO calculations, it is expected that artificial intelligence will drive a global trade growth of about 34% -37% from 2025 to 2040. And China has the world's most complete consumer electronics and intelligent manufacturing industry chain, with the ability to quickly transform AI technology into end products.
Regarding the incremental direction, Luo Zhiheng believes that intelligent terminals may become an important breakthrough for AI foreign trade growth. Large models are extending from the cloud to the terminal side, including AI smartphones AI　PC、 Products such as smart wearables, humanoid robots, and smart cars are expected to enter the stage of large-scale application.
In the longer term, the impact of AI on the global trade landscape is simultaneously changing the structure of goods and the path of trade realization. Luo Zhiheng stated that although AI driven service trade is currently relatively small in scale, it has enormous growth potential and strategic value. It can form synergy with manufacturing exports and promote the optimization of China's trade structure.
Gao Shiwang also believes that AI computing power is becoming a variable and opportunity for China's manufacturing industry and electromechanical exports. The export of AI directly related products such as storage chips, optical modules, and fiber optic cables has increased in quantity and price. According to market expectations and performance guidance from leading companies, the prosperity of these categories will continue. ”He further pointed out that with the rapid penetration of AI into various industries, the system advantages and application scenario dividends of China's manufacturing industry will be further released, which will not only accelerate the transformation of traditional industries, but also give birth to new technology categories such as robots and intelligent terminals, forming new export increments.